With due caution, a short thread on the vaccines row.

It is, in my view, a huge issue and will come to dominate global politics in the year ahead. Two world views are colliding, and there is no easy resolution. 1/7

First - vaccine supply can be seen as a 'normal' commercial contract, for a good which is very much in demand. Sellers seek out buyers and together they come to mutually satisfactory agreements. 2/7

If the EU or the UK or Nigeria (or Pfizer or AstraZeneca) have got what they think is a bad deal they should blame their lawyers, or their position on the market. If they have a got a better deal than their neighbours, that is to be cheered (loudly). 3/7

But there is another perspective. One that emphasises that Covid is a global pandemic which requires a global solution. One that is more sceptical about the ability of markets (in these conditions) to reach optimal outcomes. 4/7

This perspective is one which is, perhaps, queasy about the power of the pharmaceutical companies and the larger economies. One that, perhaps, sees the vaccine as a public good, which should be directed towards those that need it most. 5/7

Here is a link to a study (from December) which provides an overview of how high income countries have secured future supplies of covid-19 vaccines but that access for the rest of the world is uncertain. 6/7 https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4750

My sense is that many people can see the problems with the commercial contract route. But, that unless enough people are prepared to accept that their vaccines will be delayed because of the greater need elsewhere, things are not going to change. 7/7