@mrjamesob When you look at Scottish Independence you need to look closely at the currency issue. A subject the SNP has never properly answered (1)
The current SNP policy is a new currency. They also want EU membership. Scotland has a small tax base and, as a percentage, far fewer higher rate tax payers than the rest of the UK. (2)
Currently Scotland receives a fiscal transfer from the rest of the UK of roughly £2,000 per person. that equates to a budget deficit of nearly 8% of GDP. (3)
It is calculated that a new currency would need a minimum of 18 month's GDP in reserve to ensure currency liquidity (i.e. enough money to ensure transactions can take place) (4)
Scotland's share of UK reserves would provide about 10 weeks currency liquidity. (5)
So an independent Scotland would have to simultaneously:
1. Ensure sufficient reserves for liquidity
2. maintain public spending (current SNP policy is to spend 2% of GDP on defence which would actually increase spending) (6)
3. reduce any budget deficit to under the EU entry requirement (3% of GDP)
4. Provide budgets for services currently provided through Westminster e.g. Pensions, Foreign affairs. (7)
As stated, Scotland doesn't have the tax base to do all this. It won't be able to borrow to do it. It doesn't have existing reserves to do it. (8)
And since the SNP aim is to join the EU, it can't peg a new currency to Sterling (as Ireland did for nearly 60 years) as applicant nations need to have full control in areas such as interest rates (9)
What we would see is an impoverished nation, likely subject to capital flight and a run on its currency, unable to spend on public services, with cripplingly high tax rates (10)
The SNP, in many ways are similar to the Brexiters. The wave flags and scream about sovereignty but when it comes down to the nitty gritty, the boring detail of running a nation state, they have no answers just bogus statistics, double counting and lies (11)
p.s. It is really worth stating that the length of time Sterling has existing, it's relative stability and the combined reserves of the UK are a real benefit of the union (12)
p.p.s. We have just left a union of 50 years and look at the chaos. Now imagine breaking up a union of over 300 years. (13)
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