The AstraZeneca saga is only a Brexit story in the UK. In Europe the narrative this AM is simple: AstraZeneca took the money and ran - let’s audit facilities and ramp up. The difference is important to understand what’s happening.

The issues raised by the Commission are unrelated to Brexit - how come 330 million euros upfront only get you a quarter of doses in time? These figures have not been disputed. We can debate all day - but contract is final word here.

A more relevant question than Brexit politics is: should Europe have mobilised more resources to ensure a production chain? The perennial risk aversion? We’re assuming EMA approval tomorrow - why wait a full week after Astra news broke.

Also - the communications didn’t help. Commission only started to fully answer questions/ give details yesterday after the AZ CEO Soriot, in a very media savvy move, jumped first to frame the narrative in a full page QA printed across the European press. Commission on backfoot.

Idea that UK is now jumping to rescue Europe with extra doses is to some extent spin if the contract does indeed say there is no priority based on signature date and no hierarchy of facilities based on location as EU claims. Terms of contract is the key here. Rest is politics.

The lesson from this saga - forget about specifics or names - is that there is a real anxiety kicking in about the pace of vaccination and supplies, magnified by the risk of mutations and a rough winter ahead.