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I see a lot of people hoping for Feyenoord to sign VVV striker Giakoumakis, an Eredivisie phenomenon who netted 4 goals yesterday, scoring 20 goals in 19 games this season. Here’s why I think signing him would be the continuation of what we want to end at Feyenoord.
Before signing with VVV last summer, Giakoumakis had scored 26 goals in 150 games. He’s close to doubling that amount in (less than) 34 games – very good, yet one of the reasons I wouldn’t want to sign him.
His expected goals this season (the amount of goals you can expect from the quality of his chances) is 13.15. In other words: he’s scored 7 goals more than you could expect. Good? Yes. But, based on his very mediocre prior goal scoring record, he was probably lucky.
This all makes Giakoumakis a text book example of a one season wonder – and we’ve seen many of those scoring like crazy in the past ten years, only to fail in their consecutive seasons. From Vlemminckx to Santos to Malki: the list is long.
In other words, Giakoumakis is a 26-year old striker who has *never* had a season like this before, who scores more than you can expect and who is thus very unlikely to repeat this next season. Surely a club will fall for it, but it shouldn't be us.
In the past few years, fans and analysts have rightly criticized Feyenoords tendency to sign Eredivisie hot shots (who then often failed at Feyenoord). If you want more Studio Sport Scouting, Giakoumakis is your guy. If you want innovation and smarter recruitment, he really isn’t
