Read on Twitter
1/11
My key thoughts for Tesla Q4 earnings:
1. Q4 Gross Margin (GM) is lower than expected, but:
. Auto GM is actually higher than Q3, after taking out noisy one time factors like investing in S/X refresh/single piece castings, big Y price cut in China (great for long term...
My key thoughts for Tesla Q4 earnings:
1. Q4 Gross Margin (GM) is lower than expected, but:
. Auto GM is actually higher than Q3, after taking out noisy one time factors like investing in S/X refresh/single piece castings, big Y price cut in China (great for long term...
2/11
& fence off competitors), higher logistics & labor cost due to Covid.
. Energy GM lowered by solar roof ramp, now achieved best cost structure in industry, ready to roar back to #1.
. Big increase in R&D, rapid expansion in service centers, mobile fleet & Super Chargers
& fence off competitors), higher logistics & labor cost due to Covid.
. Energy GM lowered by solar roof ramp, now achieved best cost structure in industry, ready to roar back to #1.
. Big increase in R&D, rapid expansion in service centers, mobile fleet & Super Chargers
3/11
. $100 million interest due to early settlement of Convertible notes
. Stock based compensation for Elon’s comp.
Overall, all these are great for long term.
CFO reconfirms operating margin will continue to grow!
. $100 million interest due to early settlement of Convertible notes
. Stock based compensation for Elon’s comp.
Overall, all these are great for long term.
CFO reconfirms operating margin will continue to grow!
4/11
2. Outlook
Tesla will grow >50% for “many years to come”.
2021 delivery will be “materially” above 50% guidance, and “same again next year”.
2021 2H will be higher than 1H due to various new product ramps.
Elon thinks 2021 will be a great year!
2. Outlook
Tesla will grow >50% for “many years to come”.
2021 delivery will be “materially” above 50% guidance, and “same again next year”.
2021 2H will be higher than 1H due to various new product ramps.
Elon thinks 2021 will be a great year!
5/11
Tons of new products/factories, SH expanding.
Opex as % of revenue will keep dropping, as Tesla scales rapidly.
I think Tesla wants to focus on >50% long term growth for years to come, instead of a specific short term WS expectation to manage, absolutely right thing!
Tons of new products/factories, SH expanding.
Opex as % of revenue will keep dropping, as Tesla scales rapidly.
I think Tesla wants to focus on >50% long term growth for years to come, instead of a specific short term WS expectation to manage, absolutely right thing!
6/11
3. FSD:
FSD monthly subscription in 1-2 months.
FSD is iterating/improving quickly, 1000+ beta users, will add more. Elon: “We have got so much data”, Data is the electricity for great AI!
Elon: “the Holy Grail is auto labeling”, this is a dream for any AI person like me.
3. FSD:
FSD monthly subscription in 1-2 months.
FSD is iterating/improving quickly, 1000+ beta users, will add more. Elon: “We have got so much data”, Data is the electricity for great AI!
Elon: “the Holy Grail is auto labeling”, this is a dream for any AI person like me.
7/11
Another important thing, Elon said FSD can be achieved on current Tesla chip, no need for chip v2 + HR cameras
Dont see any obstacles for FSD to be 100% safer than a person, huge!
Elon: “I’m not sure who would be number two to achieve autonomy.”
Another important thing, Elon said FSD can be achieved on current Tesla chip, no need for chip v2 + HR cameras
Dont see any obstacles for FSD to be 100% safer than a person, huge!
Elon: “I’m not sure who would be number two to achieve autonomy.”
8/11
Dojo is a training supercomputer. “We believe it will be the best neural net training computer in the world by possibly an order of magnitude”
I am sure Elon knows what Google has, so this is amazing! Also this could be a new business line: Dojo AI SaaS.
Dojo is a training supercomputer. “We believe it will be the best neural net training computer in the world by possibly an order of magnitude”
I am sure Elon knows what Google has, so this is amazing! Also this could be a new business line: Dojo AI SaaS.
9/11
4. Battery
Dont see any showstoppers for 4680, and achieve 100GWh by 2022
5. New S/X
. Stunning futuristic car that you can take delivery in 1 month. Way beyond my expectation!
. Elon mentioned there will be a separate call for new Model S/X, maybe later this week
4. Battery
Dont see any showstoppers for 4680, and achieve 100GWh by 2022
5. New S/X
. Stunning futuristic car that you can take delivery in 1 month. Way beyond my expectation!
. Elon mentioned there will be a separate call for new Model S/X, maybe later this week
10/11
6. CyberTruck
Finished almost all engineering, soon order equipment, 8000 ton casting press for CT!
May delivery some in 2021, but majority will be in 2022.
7. Market Value
Elon thinks it is easy to justify Tesla as $1T, only using 2X vehicle utilization for robotaxi.
6. CyberTruck
Finished almost all engineering, soon order equipment, 8000 ton casting press for CT!
May delivery some in 2021, but majority will be in 2022.
7. Market Value
Elon thinks it is easy to justify Tesla as $1T, only using 2X vehicle utilization for robotaxi.
11/11
CFO: “As we look forward, 2021 may be our most meaningful step forward yet, as we see the benefits of long-standing investments in capacity and technology. “
Don’t be misled by the AH price drop, Q4 is nothing short of amazing!
Hold on your $TSLA, it will pay off IMO!
CFO: “As we look forward, 2021 may be our most meaningful step forward yet, as we see the benefits of long-standing investments in capacity and technology. “
Don’t be misled by the AH price drop, Q4 is nothing short of amazing!
Hold on your $TSLA, it will pay off IMO!
