WORRISOME MATH— #B117 variant is so crazy: what happens if there are just 10 cases now, & new 🇬🇧 #B117 has 50%⬆️ transmissibility?

📌1000+ daily cases on Mar23

📌2000+ daily cases on Mar31

This doesn’t include schools reopening or vaccines.

(HT @GosiaGasperoPhD) #COVID19
2) Notably, the virus is such a beast—suppose we have 1000 cases/day now... with an R=0.86 we could reduce it to 500/day in 2 weeks.

➡️But w/ added contagiousness of B117 variant that has ~60% higher R, in 2 weeks, we’d have 3000 new cases/day—3x! 6x vs old

HT @GosiaGasperoPhD
3) Denmark 🇩🇰 CDC has modeled this as well... and it’s horrendous. Denmark sequences EVERY SINGLE CASE EACH WEEK for mutations and they know it’s increasing 70% per week!!! Earlier modeling: https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1346899021621813249
4) Basically, Denmark 🇩🇰’s CDC ( @SSI_dk) is so pessimistic that it believes the B117 will inevitably dominate the country and likely the world by Feb/March. And with its higher R of contagiousness, we either stop it now or we are completely screwed by spring time.
5) here is the other problem... what used to work before for old common #sarscov2, will not work anymore to keep the R<1 for this new #B117. https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1346620196736413696?
6) Problem is, we know we aren’t starting at 10 cases of #B117 in the US. We already identified 315 with minimal genetic mutation sequencing of cases. Likely thousands in the Us! We are much further along the curve. https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/transmission/variant-cases.html
7) And to add to that, wealthy Switzerland is now seeing an increase surpassing Denmark’s 70% weekly increase pace. This is gonna be so bad considering Europe has much better controls than US.

Also UK #B117 went from current Denmark 🇩🇰/ Swiss 🇨🇭 levels to 🇬🇧 75% in 1 month!
8) What about the US? Here is the CDC model with and R of 1.1 and R or 0.9 currently and how the new #b117 variant (light purple) quickly taking over US assuming 1 million vaccinations per day. That also assumes we can keep R under 1.1, which is very very hard.
9) CDC thinks the new #B117 will pretty much sure take over Us and be dominant by March. URGENT mitigation is necessary to keep the R under 1. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/pdfs/mm7003e2-H.pdf
10) Look at how #B117 is growing as fraction of total **despite** a lockdown. https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1353982021996044288
11) Denmark also discovered the #B1351 variant from South Africa 🇿🇦. How? Because Denmark 🇩🇰 is the only country to SEQUENCE EVERY CASE EVERY WEEK. You can’t beat that diligence.

US barely has any sequencing comparatively https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1353983006017519616
12) What if we want to eliminate it? How much harder is #B117 to get rid of? What used to take old strain 45 days would not take 190 days if R=0.864. That’s assuming we can even achieve that without huge vaccine rollout or lockdowns. Oy. https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1346621036368949248
13) we all want schools to reopen. But this is harder than we think. Here is the reality. https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1345858404263321600
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