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A thread on my analytical approach to determine the most underperforming and overperforming units in the 2020 #NFL 
season.
season.
I built a separate model to measure performance that was more subjective than my core models based specifically on game output.
I used clues about offseason free-agent signings, salaries, preseason projections and when players were drafted -- and then adjusted for major injuries over the course of the season in order to calibrate expectations.
Driven by the desire to incorporate as many "outsider" data points as possible, I also factored in my win-share model.
Reminder: My win-share figure is defined as the measurement of how each player, position group and side of the ball impacts a team's ability to earn first downs and touchdowns, as related to wins. And yes, these can be negative.
The whole point is to apply unbiased structure to contextualize football taking into account situations that lead to specific outcomes -- relating them back to expectations. I rank each team's position groups ahead of the season using projected win share.
This analysis is intended to talk about underperformance in context. For example, Seattle acquiring a big-ticket trade piece like Carlos Dunlap at midseason invalidates the Seahawks' preseason ranking. It's all about using a strategic lens.
This season, I've shifted from looking at only underperforming units to also those that overperformed, because we all need a little more positivity in our lives at this juncture.
The areas my model flagged for negative impact were compared to areas of high preseason expectations and/or disproportionate negative win share. The areas my model flagged for positive impact exceeded their preseason expectations and/or disproportionate positive win share.
My five most overperforming NFL units of 2020 are: 1) Browns (Offensive Line) 2) Jaguars (Run Game) 3) Bucs (Run Game) 4) Packers (WRs) 5) Chiefs (Secondary).
My five most underperforming NFL units of 2020 are: 1) Vikings (Defensive Line) 2) Ravens (WRs) 3) Cowboys (Offensive Line) 4) Eagles (QB) 5) Titans (Defensive Front).
These could all be big factors in 2021 offseason approaches, decisions and strategies. Deeper dive into each unit here: http://bit.ly/3t3jtmk
