Keep in mind that Ron Johnson hasn't decided on whether he's going to retire yet. If he does, WI is a pure Toss-Up race. Watch for a Grassley retirement in Iowa too. If those two states are open, then R's have open seats in IA, OH, WI, PA, NC. Not good for their chances.

If/when Grassley retires, Iowa is "Very Likely R," D's have about a 10% chance of winning. If Democrats actually recruit a strong candidate for the seat, it's "Likely R," D's have a 20% chance of winning.

The only good thing R's have going for them in the Senate right now is that Sununu will probably run for Senate and make the race a Toss-Up or even Tilt R. No, I do not see Sandoval running for Senate in Nevada. It would be astonishing if he did.

To clarify the original tweet: Wisconsin is Tilt R or Lean R if Johnson runs again. He'll absolutely be starting out as a favorite, just depends how much of a favorite you think he is. But again, up in the air whether he runs again.

Overall, the Senate is a pure Toss-Up. Democrats have a much better shot at keeping the Senate than the House. But if they want to keep the Senate after 2024, they have to flip at least 2 seats.