Some have reached out to me to ask about the recent preprint by Institut Pasteur International Network on the SARS2-like bat virus that was found in North East Cambodia in 2010 (but only published in 2021, ~a decade later). https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.26.428212v1.full.pdf

The manuscript's ultimate claim: "SARS-CoV-2 related viruses have a much wider geographic distribution than previously understood, and suggests that Southeast Asia represents a key area to consider in the ongoing search for the origins of SARS-CoV-2, and in future surveillance.."

The article begins with what is true: that there is a hotspot for emerging coronavirus diseases in a South East Asia and also South China region, more than 1000 kilometers away from Wuhan, where people have 0% antibodies to SARSr-CoVs, no SARS2-like viruses ever found there.

Out of 430 archived bat samples, only 2 tested positive for SARSr-CoV. Both had the same virus and were collected in December 2010 (a decade ago) in North East Cambodia.

Anyone else feel like we're getting further and further away from Wuhan (ground zero)?

Bottom line the closest relatives to SARS2 were found in Yunnan China in 2013 (RaTG13) and 2019 (RmYN02).

Closest Spike RBD match: CoV from a single batch of smuggled pangolins in Guangdong province. Out of >300 smuggled pangolins confiscated in Malaysia, 0 had coronaviruses.

All of these close relatives to SARS-CoV-2 (covid virus), how many have a furin cleavage site at the S1/S2 region?

None.

RaTG13
RmYN02
Guangdong pangolin CoV with the SARS2-like RBD
Guangxi pangolin CoV
Zhoushan SARS viruses ZC45 and ZXC21
Thai bat SARSrCoVs
Cambodian SARSrCoV

I get it. The host range (talking about bats) extends over a vast geographical area even reaching into Hubei province where Wuhan city is located. Bats are there.

But it doesn't mean that the virus or its relatives were detected that far north in Wuhan/Hubei.

We could spend the next decades Q-tipping as many bats as possible in SE Asia. It's not going to tell us how this pandemic got started in Wuhan.

Sampling of pathogens is very interesting for scientists. It helps us to build a comprehensive picture of what pathogens are out there.

But it's not going to tell us how SARS2 imploded in Wuhan city.

Existing problems with transparency, accountability - we have no solutions.

Only Chinese government-approved Chinese scientists can sample pathogens in China now. Even non-approved Chinese scientists had their samples confiscated when they tried to sample the Yunnan cave.

And over the next years maybe we find some more SARS2 relatives in SE Asia..

Maybe years later we even find a virus in SE Asia that is 99% identical to SARS2.

Then what?

How do you reconcile how that virus got from SE Asia to Wuhan city?

The folks who are skeptical about a natural origins of SARS2 are NOT saying that there are zero SARS2 relatives outside of China. That would be ludicrous.

The reasons why both natural and lab origins could be plausible for covid-19...

I think it's better that I save it for next week. One more article co-authored with @mattwridley coming out next week and then I'm back to fighting scientific journal editors again.