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Let's put the comparisons between the 2003 and 2021 recall efforts to rest. There's no comparison. Gray Davis's approval ratings in the months before the recall hovered around 23 percent; Gavin Newsom is at about 58 percent today. He's simply too popular for it to go anywhere.
California's political landscape in 2003 was completely different. Davis won re-election with just 47 percent of the vote, less than five points ahead of the Republican nominee. Democratic voter registration was 44 percent, and Republican voter registration was at 35 percent.
In 2018, Newsom demolished the Republican nominee with 62 percent, a difference of 24 points. Democratic voter registration is two points higher than in 2002, but Republican registration has plummeted to 24 percent. Democratic candidates won 64 percent of the 2018 primary.
Democrats have 12 more Assembly seats now than in 2003 (67 percent) and six more Senate seats (78 percent). Legislative Democrats were powerless against Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, but they could easily stand up to any Republican governor unlikely to get elected anyway.
To be clear, Democrats do take their control of California for granted. Republicans lost relevance by championing a racist ballot measure targeting the state's fastest-growing demographic. Today, Democrats press their luck by ignoring several crises that erode confidence in them.
A Republican governor might even demonstrate to Democrats the urgency of reining in an out-of-control executive. Checks and balances disappear when politicians of the same party cover for one another. The Legislature would've censored a Republican governor for EDD alone by now.
Energy spent hand-wringing over a recall would be better spent actually solving long-neglected problems and thereby undermining recall efforts. But just as Republican governors in Democratic states have hardly turned New England into the Deep South, California would be fine.
