Oilers problems: 1. The 3rd line run by Turris is getting caved (34% xGF%). Turns out having the worst-performing 3rd line in the league is an issue. This was underpinned by a bet on Turris, who was showing warning signs last season.

2. The PP going from the best in history last season to an 18% average is a huge problem. Whether that'll last is open to debate, but something is off so far. This regression is a huge blow to last year's formula.

3. Goalies. Like the entire strategy behind this position. Picking a 38/39yo marginal goalie as your backup had risks from the start. He's hurt, meaning #1 guy is overplayed.

Last year's obviously unsustainable PK SV% was, well, not sustainable. (Kosk has gone from 0.899 to 0.887). Overall, Koskinen is sitting at a 0.900 overall this year, from 0.917 last season. This was all relatively predictable.

4. Weird lineup decisions on the bottom of the roster. This usually isn't a big deal unless you have easily better options sitting and your bottom roster sucks. The Oilers have and do. Khaira (14% xGF%) and Russell (39% xGF%) are canaries in the coal mine.