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Good afternoon, Niagara. It is Wednesday, so that means our deep dive snapshot into local #COVID19 data. There are some positive trends to pay attention to, and some more grim news. So here we go. (thread)
New cases today are at 104 - in keeping with what *appears* to be a lower baseline hovering around 100 new cases a day. That trend has to cook a bit more before one can say it definitively, but that is where it looks like it is headed: https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/4921417/
We can get a much better look at this via the curve graph, which shows the infection curve rounding out, which could mean Niagara is on route to flatten the curve again.
COVID-19 in Niagara-Curve https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1857629/
COVID-19 in Niagara-Curve https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/1857629/
Also note active cases have fallen noticeably, as have hospitalizations. On that last point, that has a lot do with the high death rate of hospitalized #COVID19 patients, rather than recoveries. Context matters in these numbers, and the data continues to point to grim outcomes.
If we look at new cases per-day, you can see why it appears that we have a new, lower, baseline of infections in Niagara, starting last week to today. But, again, we need to see if this holds over time.
COVID-19 Niagara: New cases per day https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/2160012/
COVID-19 Niagara: New cases per day https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/2160012/
One number that is NOT going in a positive direction is #COVID19 deaths in Niagara. Another five people have died, bringing the overall total to a staggering 289 people.
COVID-19 in Niagara: deaths over time https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/4841001/ Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h
COVID-19 in Niagara: deaths over time https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/4841001/ Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h
Looking at recent deaths, this averages out, over the last 5 days, to someone in Niagara with #COVID19 dying every 3.5 hours.
As I noted earlier this week, the death toll is shocking, as is the lack of notice of it by Niagara political leaders. https://twitter.com/GrantRants/status/1353926806559092736
As I noted earlier this week, the death toll is shocking, as is the lack of notice of it by Niagara political leaders. https://twitter.com/GrantRants/status/1353926806559092736
There is other data showing the overall improvement in Niagara, albeit still tentative and still in a bad place.
The most noticeable is the reproductive number, which has fallen considerably:
Niagara COVID-19 reproductive rate https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/4240733/
The most noticeable is the reproductive number, which has fallen considerably:
Niagara COVID-19 reproductive rate https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/4240733/
Although it is below the yellow zone level, for context (because that is what we are about here) that is because of a decline in outbreak-related cases in LTC homes. Community spread remains pretty high as you will see.
Cases per 100,000 has also taken a significant dip for the same reason. But note that the number remains well above the red zone threshold, meaning Niagara is not out of the woods yet.
Niagara COVID-19: Cases per 100,000 https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/4318172/ Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h
Niagara COVID-19: Cases per 100,000 https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/4318172/ Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h
Test positivity has also fallen. It remains well above the red zone threshold, but it is below the @NRPublicHealth danger zone for the first time since late December:
Niagara COVID-19: positivity rate https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/4240488/ Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h
Niagara COVID-19: positivity rate https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/4240488/ Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h
What has not changed is who is getting sick, and who is dying. Notice that younger folk, those under 40, still represent the driving demographic of new daily cases:
Niagara COVID-19 case by age https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/3736652/ Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h
Niagara COVID-19 case by age https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/3736652/ Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h
The flip side of this is that while they represent much few cases, the elderly continue to be the ones paying the price of a high level of community spread:
Niagara COVID-19 Deaths by age https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/4054343/ Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h
Niagara COVID-19 Deaths by age https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/4054343/ Visualised with @f_l_o_u_r_i_s_h
There are those who want to frame the pandemic as an "eldercare" issues. And while there should be a reckoning about how we treat our most vulnerable, elderly citizens, the data tells the tale: The young spread the virus, which eventually hits LTCs, and people die. QED.
The other metric to watch is @niagarahealth ICU capacity, which is under serious stress. More than 93% of ICU beds are now occupied. Another surge in #COVID19 would threaten the ability of the hospital to treat ICU patients.
On the whole a mixed bag: an improvement over several metrics, which is good. But the high #COVID19 death rate in Niagara continues to roll on unabated and may continue to do so for some days yet to come.
On the vaccination front, @NRPublicHealth efforts have slowed down. I am told by @mustafahirji this is because coordination with high-risk retirement homes, which have fewer staff, is more difficult than it was with the LTC care homes. https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/4977154/
Note there are no increases in @niagarahealth vaccination numbers because staff vaccinations stopped due to limited supply issues.
