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Some thoughts on the intelligence community, where I spent a decade, and its role in understanding the national security implications of climate change.
Today, President Biden will reportedly direct the DNI to produce a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on climate change. 1/
Today, President Biden will reportedly direct the DNI to produce a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on climate change. 1/
An NIE is important because it represents the authoritative stamp of the U.S. intelligence community and is reviewed by the National Intelligence Board, comprised of the heads of the intelligence community. This NIE will be classified however. 2/
We should expect that there will be an unclassified derivative of this NIE available to the public, but it will not be the whole enchilada. The drafting and review process is arduous, and the NIE might be finished by year's end but that will be quite a lift. 3/
If I were still in govt, this NIE would likely fall in my lap to some degree, but other obligations would keep me from spending 100% of my time on it. Drawing on the analytic community for drafters would be complicated by an ongoing torrent of WH taskings and meetings. 4/
The IC has a paucity of analysts able to critically review primary scientific literature, so judgments on stale or even obvious information can get through. This is a shortcoming that would be unthinkable in most other technical fields, such as space or cyber. 5/
Mid-level reviewers, who are generally very talented, are nonetheless unlikely to have a technical background and tend to focus on whether written analyses are well-articulated and sound rather than scientifically valid. This is common. 6/
In serving Biden's aggressive climate agenda, ODNI needs to seriously step up its game. It cannot stop at rebuilding lost capacity during the previous administration and shuffle analysts around to meet increased demand. 7/
ODNI needs to anticipate how to tackle the hard science-based questions coming down the pike in 2022 and beyond. For example, how do the different risk streams of climate change, infectious diseases, and habitat change converge? What to make of ongoing species extinctions? 8/
The National Intelligence Council is the analytic arm of ODNI and broken into divisions headed by National Intelligence Officers (NIOs) and usually a Deputy NIO or two. They are responsible for analytic production, supporting the DNI, and representing the IC at NSC meetings. 9/
There are regional NIOs for Africa, Asia, Western Hemisphere, etc and functional NIOs, such as Economics, Cyber, WMD, S&T.
Critically, there is no NIO for climate nor any environmental issue. 10/
Critically, there is no NIO for climate nor any environmental issue. 10/
ODNI does not meaningfully interact with the U.S. Global Change Research Program nor the climate/environment teams at NASA and NOAA. These could even be formalized to better understand the security risks ahead. 11/
There is much more to say but interested readers should head to this column by my former and amazing colleague @ErinSikorsky 12/ https://warontherocks.com/2021/01/analyzing-the-climate-security-threat-key-actions-for-the-u-s-intelligence-community/
Also check out the following Arctic report by @kateaguy @GoodmanSherri and @Marisol_Maddox to understand how climate change manifests as a national security issue. 13/ https://climateandsecurity.org/2021/01/release-new-report-by-security-experts-warns-of-gray-zone-warfare-and-great-power-conflict-potential-in-arctic-if-climate-change-goes-uncurbed/
