At least three important points to pull from this NYT piece on the private prison EO: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/26/business/biden-private-prisons-justice-department.html

1. The union representing public-sector Fed prison staff is happy. That alone tells us everything. This won't reduce prison pops, just move them.
In the long run, then, this reduces the power of private lobbying, increases that of the publics (by making them more secure).

This makes the already more-powerful more powerful. Because, historically, when the public unions face off against the privates, the publics win:
(What is now) CoreCivic tried to privatize prisons in TN, its corporate home. Had support of both GOP chambers + GOP governor. Failed at the 11th hour when the pub sector unions started screaming "jobs!!" (Rural, GOP-district jobs, to be clear.)
And GEO faced the exact same turn of events when it tried to do the same in FL, its corporate home. Had a GOP supermajority in the state senate, but Dems were able to pick off a handful of GOP senators when the public CO union again yelled about "jobs!!"
Which brings us to point 2.

2. Please. Please. PLEASE. PLEEEAAAASSSSEEEE!!! Stop talking as if the privates are about "profit motive" and the publics are.... not.

The publics are. They are all about the money. It may be less obvious. But they are.
Of that $50B we spend on prisons each yr, abt two-thirds of it, or ~$35,000,000,0000, goes to wages and benefits (and bet the total is more, once you deal with where pensions hide in some budgets).

$35B to often-disadvantaged rural towns. That's a HUGE financial incentive!tgive!
The idea that privates lobby for profit while publics lobby for... something else... is wrong.

The prison isn't just one of the major sources of income in many places. As a result, it's also the income keeping the other businesses in business.

State reps will FIGHT for that.
Plus, prisons inflate rural GOP political power in most states via the prison gerrymander. This = more tax revenue flowing to GOP areas overall, since it gives the GOP more power over budgeting.

Unfamiliar with the bracingly racist gerrymander? More here: https://twitter.com/JohnFPfaff/status/939907717350686720?s=20
To me, this has always been one of the biggest costs of focusing on privates: it leads people to think of the publics as someone not driven by financial incentives, which is simply not true.

They lobby. And they lobby to keep the cash flowing.
Finally, (3) this applies only to renewals, and only to the DOJ.

Any contract that expires post-2024 could survive this if the Dems don't hold the WH.

And it doesn't apply to DHS, which runs those private facilities that horrified everyone over the past four years.
But to be clear: people often say "but hey, at least it's a good first step."

Honestly, it could be a step BACKWARDS. It does almost nothing, and frames things in a way that leads us to give too much of a pass to the institutions doing the real harm.
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