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Looking at the data, there is good reason to believe that the UK will have turned a corner in its fight against Coronavirus by mid-February. Deaths *should* be coming down dramatically.
Why?
Why?
83% of coronavirus deaths in the UK occur in those aged 70 and over.
Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
In the UK, there are about 9 million people aged 70 and above, or 13.5% of the population.
Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/281174/uk-population-by-age/
Source: https://www.statista.com/statistics/281174/uk-population-by-age/
We have already given one vaccine dose to about 10% of the UK's population, starting with the oldest and most at-risk.
Source: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Source: https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
By February 15, the UK aims to have offered the first vaccine dose to the top 4 priority groups, which includes everyone aged 70 and over.
Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan
Source: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan/uk-covid-19-vaccines-delivery-plan
Data from Israel shows hospitalizations start to fall sharply from Day 18 after people receive the first shot.
Source: https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-sees-60-drop-in-hospitalizations-for-over-60s-in-weeks-after-vaccination/
Source: https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-sees-60-drop-in-hospitalizations-for-over-60s-in-weeks-after-vaccination/
Meanwhile, people under 50 years old represent just 2.3% of all coronavirus deaths in the UK, and people under 40 represent 0.6% of deaths. They will be offered the vaccine over the coming months.
Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
Source: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
Every death is a tragedy, and there's still the risk of long-term health impacts for those who catch the virus and survive. So we should fight until we’ve vaccinated everyone in the world and eliminated this virus.
But I think we’re turning a corner.
But I think we’re turning a corner.
