Read on Twitter
But kids can't get COVID! @KenyaBradshaw @ConorPWilliams @ericlerum @karinchenoweth @jacobwaters @selmekki @DataDrivenMD @DanGordonDC https://twitter.com/DrZoeHyde/status/1354405564932001803
"But seriously, kids can't get COVID. As long as we don't test them for it!" @KenyaBradshaw @ConorPWilliams @ericlerum @karinchenoweth @jacobwaters @selmekki @DataDrivenMD @DanGordonDC https://twitter.com/DrZoeHyde/status/1354348536368746501?s=19
When you aggressively test for COVID in school buildings, you will find it. @KenyaBradshaw @ConorPWilliams @ericlerum @karinchenoweth @jacobwaters @selmekki @DataDrivenMD @DanGordonDC https://twitter.com/DrZoeHyde/status/1354318993436282881?s=19
By the way: We still don't know enough about what COVID does to the bodies and life expectancies of children. In Israel, children account for 40 percent of COVID cases. Which is why the Israeli government is rushing to vaccinate its Jewish citizens. https://www.jpost.com/health-science/with-more-kids-sick-with-covid-can-israel-re-open-schools-656791
Folks are hoping that vaccinations will make magic happen. But as I noted yesterday, that isn't likely for several reasons. @ASlavitt, who is on the President's advisory committee for combatting COVID, explains why. https://twitter.com/CitizenCohn/status/1354468466116485122
The nation will need 500 million doses for everyone other than youth under 19 (who still can't be vaccinated because no inoculating medication exists for them). But getting those doses will take time. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/biden-administration-purchase-200-million-more-vaccine-shots_n_601085bec5b67848ee7c1d43
Even if Johnson & Johnson's vaccine (which requires just one dose) is approved, it will take time for the company to produce. Right now, we don't know enough about it to know that it will be as effective as either the Pfizer or Moderna jabs, or it will be more like AstraZeneca's.
Ultimately, though, if folks want school buildings reopened, we must stem the pandemic. Which means reducing and suppressing community spread.
Right now, the nation is failing that marshmallow test. https://twitter.com/jessemckinley/status/1354473943122456583
Right now, the nation is failing that marshmallow test. https://twitter.com/jessemckinley/status/1354473943122456583
Which matters because, as data from a recent CDC study focused on an outbreak in Polk County shows, children can have a higher attack rate (that is get sick from contact with a COVID sufferer/carrier) than every other adult group other than the elderly.
Money isn't the only problem with reopening, as Barnum notes. There's still high community spread in 90 percent of the country as well as the reasonable fears of Black, Brown and even the majority of White families, who have all stuck with all-virtual. https://twitter.com/matt_barnum/status/1354478845139836928
Money is a critical factor in helping school systems reopen safely once spread is low. But the biggest dollars need to go to municipalities and states to push for real lockdowns, as well as to provide pandemic relief for workers and businesses who need it.
As I noted months ago, the biggest resource infusions won't need to go to school systems. Once you bring spread down, you can reopen buildings under hybrid to minimize risks of community spread once the doors open. But the big dollars must go to stemming community spread.
Especially given what is now happening: A viral holocaust. https://twitter.com/charles_gaba/status/1354274373822242819
The United States has had 419,000 deaths from COVID.
That's more than the population of Miami, Florida (410,000 people).
That's more than the population of Miami, Florida (410,000 people).
Based on an average of 5,000 deaths per day, we could end up with 100,000 deaths by February 17.
Which brings the nation to 519,000 deaths.
That's more people than in Mesa, Arizona (518,000).
Which brings the nation to 519,000 deaths.
That's more people than in Mesa, Arizona (518,000).
Those deaths explain why 46 percent of families overall prefer all-virtual to in-person or hybrid, according to this latest USC study.
Of course, this is racial. Some 42 percent of White folks prefer in-person versus a fifth of Black/Latino families.
https://uasdata.usc.edu/index.php
Of course, this is racial. Some 42 percent of White folks prefer in-person versus a fifth of Black/Latino families.
https://uasdata.usc.edu/index.php
Look closer and the numbers are even starker. Three-in-five Black folks prefer all-virtual to in-person, compared to just one-in-three White folks.
When you look at enrollment choices, most White folks are opting for all-virtual. So polling doesn't reflect actual decisions.
When you look at enrollment choices, most White folks are opting for all-virtual. So polling doesn't reflect actual decisions.
Basically, reopeners may talk a good game. But as seen in Chicago (where only 20 percent of students eligible to do in-person actually showed up), not even most White folks are willing to risk their lives or those of their kids.
That reality won't lead reopeners to change course. Because they are often insulated from the consequences thanks to them being White and affluent.
Open bars and restaurants and schools - and kill the marginalized. https://twitter.com/ConorPWilliams/status/1354500515288260608
Open bars and restaurants and schools - and kill the marginalized. https://twitter.com/ConorPWilliams/status/1354500515288260608
Conor, by the way, is correct. The way to understand why this nation has failed to stem the pandemic is through theology, as well as history and sociology. https://twitter.com/ConorPWilliams/status/1354502179558744068
As Dame Chenoweth says in her response to one of my earlier points... https://twitter.com/karinchenoweth/status/1354492654470520835
Viral genocide is as American as plantations and reservations and Indian removal and convict leasing. Black people know it well. https://twitter.com/dropoutnation/status/1354460988779716612
As Douglas Ewbank articulated in his 1987 study of Black child and adult mortality, Black folks in the 19th century, regardless of being free or enslaved, were more adversely hit by cholera and typhoid epidemics than White people.
To wit: Mortality rates for Black people in Baltimore only began to decline a decade after White folks saw declines in their mortality rates. Because Black folks were faced with viral genocide as well as impacts from Jim Crow segregation.
The viral genocide of COVID evokes the impact of past viral holocausts, and are built upon the legacies of segregation and oppression that White folks of earlier generations perpetuated - and are perpetuating now through their voting and other decisions.
You can't understand what is happening now without reading Ewbank or Wilma Dunaway's Slavery in the American Mountain South (which also details how White folks would deny nutrition to the Black folks from which they profited), or DuBois. Or the Bible. https://twitter.com/ConorPWilliams/status/1354505149801238534
These legacies of past genocides, a result of the nation's White Supremacist framework, is why the United States continues to fail the proverbial marshmallow test.
Normally, I hate mentioning that phrase because it is often misapplied; the marshmallow test was a measure of abundance and those without resources were always bound to fail.
But the United States is the wealthiest nation in the world. So the term is properly applied.
But the United States is the wealthiest nation in the world. So the term is properly applied.
The U.S. has failed the marshmallow test so badly that Roman emperors, who provided bread and circuses during times like these, are likely looking from Hell and wondering what kind of selfish shortsighted nation and people this is.
When your nation is worse in some real substantial ways than the empire criticized by Jesus in the New Testament, you can't claim to be Christian.
Back to reopening: Contrary to Eliza's assertion, I've heard no one say that vaccination wasn't key to reopening school buildings. What many have said is that vaccinating adults won't be enough - and that's a view that was shared even before December. https://twitter.com/elizashapiro/status/1354449426157330444?s=19
One key reason is the growing evidence that not only do kids get COVID, they are also suffering greatly when they aren't asymptomatic. From a moral and practical perspective, we also can't vaccinate adults without inoculating kids, too. https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2034765
Another factor: The COVID variants, including B.117, are more-transmissible among youth under 19, and based on Britain's estimates last week, the mortality rates will likely be 30 percent higher for every age category. This means more child deaths from COVID.
Vaccinations are an important step in reopening school buildings. But we still have to stem and suppress community spread in order to reopen safely as well as upgrade ventilation and build trust with families. In other words, the hard work that has always had to been done.
The nation isn't vaccinating fast enough to overcome the exponential growth in community spread - and even if it was, kids would still be susceptible because the adults would have been insulated from infection.
Speaking of the hard work: Equitably healthy school buildings with good ventilation and the kind of bathrooms and other facilities we provide to White suburban kids.
This was a problem before the pandemic - and even more acute in the COVID era. https://twitter.com/BmoreDoc/status/1354472947348602884?s=19
This was a problem before the pandemic - and even more acute in the COVID era. https://twitter.com/BmoreDoc/status/1354472947348602884?s=19
Reopeners will call this 'moving goalposts'. They always say that. Advocates for safe reopening of school buildings have pointed this out for nearly a year now.
You can't talk about reopening without talking about improved and new school buildings. https://twitter.com/DanGordonDC/status/1285210408312352768
You can't talk about reopening without talking about improved and new school buildings. https://twitter.com/DanGordonDC/status/1285210408312352768
Meanwhile Dr. Theresa Chapple provides her own analysis of CDC's study of Wood County, Wisc. - and like yours truly, she finds it wanting. https://twitter.com/Theresa_Chapple/status/1354544425767219203
By the way: Perhaps we should talk to teachers working in-person. Perhaps we will find out some things. Like what we read from one teacher in another school. https://twitter.com/haisten_michael/status/1354587332905730049
One reason why teachers and their unions have fought hard against reopening is situations such as what happened in Chicago as documented by @Ed4Excellence. https://e4e.org/blog-news/blog/fighting-continues-so-do-stories
By the way: Last month in the UK, epidemiologists and others have noted that vaccination won't be enough, either to reopen school buildings or to even ramp down the national lockdowns. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/28/covid-vaccine-uk-restrictions-independent-sage
Note that SAGE, the British science advisory group whose member, Stephen Reicher, wrote the piece, has also reported on the growing infection levels in UK schools before the Johnson government finally shut them down in January. https://www.independentsage.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Schools-Jan-2021-final.pdf
One key thing SAGE notes is the virulence of B.117, the new COVID variant which accounts for most new cases in the UK - and will account for most new COVID cases here. Because the JAMA and CDC studies released yesterday focus on cases before December, neither can account for...
B.117 and the damage it may wreck everywhere by March. In other words, besides the lack of genomic sequencing and contact tracing for the CDC Wisconsin study (as well as for the studies used in the JAMA report), neither can account for more-transmissible incoming strains.
It's a real issue. https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1354082352255930373
While Bergstrom surmises that spread can be kept low in school buildings, much of that depends on keeping spread of the variants (and infection rates) low in the communities outside. As we already know, schools are not cordons sanitaire, especially when community spread is high.
Meanwhile in Minneapolis: The district is pushing to reopen school buildings by mid-February despite how COVID is ravaging Black and Latino communities. https://twitter.com/MeesterGibbs/status/1354604194250907648
Minnesota and its cities don't report infection/positivity rates for some reason. But based on the case levels, Black and Latino residents in Minneapolis are more-likely to get hit by COVID than White folks.
Note: Minneapolis is listening to families on this decision. Fifty-five percent of Pre-K-to-5 families chose in-person, according to the district's survey, while 45 percent chose all-virtual.
Now whether they will show up - a big issue with every reopening - is another matter.
Now whether they will show up - a big issue with every reopening - is another matter.
In Chicago, just 1-in-5 families that could have opted for in-person did so. In New York, while the majority of Black and Latino families fought for reopening, 46 percent of those families chose all-virtual, and even now, less than 40 percent of all families do in-person now.
Meanwhile even one Minneapolis school board member notes that the district should be prepared to go back to all-virtual. https://twitter.com/MeesterGibbs/status/1354611021009195008
Another is demanding clear guidance for deciding when the district returns to all-virtual. Because, you know, the nation is in an uncontrolled pandemic. https://twitter.com/MeesterGibbs/status/1354610203765796864
Of course, the AFT/NEA local isn't too pleased at all. https://www.startribune.com/minneapolis-teachers-union-files-unfair-labor-practice-charge-against-school-district/600015376/?refresh=true
The local is quite correct about the high risks at this point. While daily cases have declined, the lack of infection rate data means that there's no metric for measuring community spread.
Unlike in Baltimore (where infection rates have declined enough to consider reopening school buildings; the latest rate is 5.1 percent), Minneapolis lacks enough data to make that decision. Not the fault of the district; the state isn't doing infection rate/positivity data.
Also, if families say that they want to take that risk, school systems have to be willing to consider it. Keep in mind that in Minneapolis, we have no breakdown of the survey by race and ethnicity (it wasn't available online). But again, systems must listen to families.
The big issue is that the failure of the federal government under the Trump regime to stem the pandemic has created a situation in which decisions are made because folks are exhausted (as well as selfish and unwilling to be in community with others). https://twitter.com/Theresa_Chapple/status/1354545961520001025
As Dr. Chapple puts bluntly... https://twitter.com/Theresa_Chapple/status/1354546070676779008
That support should also be financial for kids, who have borne the brunt of the pandemic and in many places, are being sent into school buildings to the risk of their lives (and have had their futures risked by educational failure for decades). https://politi.co/3ceQF4c
Meanwhile in bad decisions: A reason why many White folks are fighting for reopening is because their kids took expensive prep so they can take tests to get into gifted and talented programs. No need to waste that money just because Black people can die. https://twitter.com/MaggieEThornton/status/1354605416529981443
Not only is holding in-person tests during a pandemic a rather bad idea for public health reasons, the particular tests are educational poll tests used to promote New York's Jim Crow school system. https://twitter.com/MOREcaucusUFT/status/1354515702292635653
Especially in light of B.117. https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1354646619174678529
Which means those recommendations of just mask up the kids and teachers (and open some windows) won't be enough. [Not that they were to start.] https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1354652873829851140
In other words, all those school systems trying to reopen will be all-virtual by March. https://twitter.com/DrEricDing/status/1354654798088462338
