BTC could get to anywhere from 18-25k. For now imho 27 will give a bounce and the 24-25k has the potential to be the bottom.

Right now there is no way to say that we are in an uptrend on LTF and MTF. On HTFs yeah sure, but short mid-term nah.

This pattern could a 3-drives pattern, head and shoulders, triangle... You name it...

And the major CME gaps match perfectly with the targets. Going that low would indicate a full reset as well. At that point funding and premiums would be deeply negative and longs wiped.

That would mean the 2017 Q1-Q2 fractals would have played out and price would be very cheap. Unfortunately again as we moved like in Q2 2019, there might a be a lot of pain short term.

We were 4-6 months ahead of 'schedule' and being so far ahead means we've got time.

To me it feels like BTC is ahead of traditional markets right before a correction. Lots of exuberance, while the VIX, the USD and Bonds are ready to pop. Buy the Biden/Yellen/Vaccine rumours and sell the news.

The stimulus will come, but it is already way too late...

The problems globally are massive, so we will be getting shakeouts. Not saying short, but as BTC usually leads this might be an indication a correction is coming.

The bull isn't over, we've just gone up too much too fast.

Short term we keep getting those sweeps and funding go negative, but now everyone is waiting for that. Remember we went so high with positive funding, which means we could keep going lower with negative funding.

Maybe the alt rally wasn't anything special and just a short term

burst, but I doubt it. Once Bitcoin bottoms (if it hasn't already), I'd expect them to keep outperforming and I could even see them go up together.

Again so far we've dropped 31%, which was the first major correction... but that was exactly the same in 2019 on that rally.

Tiny corrections, lots of gaps and after the first major correction... collapse.

The difference is that back then alts were still going lower and bottomed when it was about to lose 9-10k after the distribution top. That took almost 2.5 months to play out

This time around alts are at similar levels, but look totally different. ETHBTC was up nearly 200% from that low.

So do I think it is possible we go to 18-20k? Sure. With a good dose of FUD and a USD rally easily.

So can BTC go up? Absolutely. Look there are buyers and many people watching. That's why I believe 25k is enough. The same way the 42% drop was enough in June 2017.

My worry for constantly repeating 300-400% rallies and 50-70% drops is small, but not impossible.

The reality though is that back then it was clearly a scam rally with no real demand. It was mainly a short squeeze after the bottom with a lot of manipulation on weekends.

This time around we had really big players buying and real demand. Even now open interest is relatively

low. Maybe it is because of options, but the market is much stronger and healthier... With a lot of money on the sidelines.

So I wouldn't be surprised if BTC popped and reversed from here.

Now if I see BTC close above 35k decisively and I'll get bullish again. However even then I believe it would still be stuck and alts outperform again.

For now I am more bearish in the medium term. Short term we might keep playing this game of SFPs, sweeping the lows constantly.

And going up for as long as funding remains that low. This could be played all the way down to 30000, but then I would expect it to properly drop.

We are in this weird range, where we are bleeding but could easily visit 34-35k and even 38k. Could be the ultimate bull trap