So what does yesterday's internal @CDU spat on a possible reform of the debt brake tell us for the coming months? @COdendahl has the optimistic take that a taboo was broken and that is what matters. I am not so sure.

Thread:

1/ What did @HBraun propose? A change in the constitution to allow for a longer-term temporary suspension of the debt brake instead of suspending every year anew. He also suggested it was just unrealistic to reapply the brake for 2022.

2/ Before this intervention, the CDU had an ambiguous stance on the matter. They wanted to get back to complying with the debt brake "as soon as possible" without specifying when that would be. New CDU chairman @ArminLaschet wanted to go back to the black zero by 2024.

3/ The question of changing the constitution was never touched. The question of another suspension in 2022 was mostly carefully avoided. There was an intra-party truce on this hot-button issue - which made sense especially now that Laschet has to unite the party behind him.

4/ Along comes @HBraun and throws in his little bomb - presumably with the knowledge of his boss, the chancellor. We may never know what exactly motivated this stunt. We do know though what reactions it caused.

5/ Emotions boiled over pretty quickly. The parliamentary group was first to rebuke Braun, calling the proposal his personal opinion. Then came the party. Then even Merkel's own spokesperson. All reiterated their attachment to the debt brake and that Braun was all alone.

6/ But people were not only pushing back against the position Braun took - they were really, really pissed that they had to take a stance on the matter now themselves. Constructive ambiguity going up in flames is rarely a pretty sight. It definitely wasn't yesterday.

7/ And of course the position the post-Merkel CDU establishment has now taken is harder than it was before: No change to the constitution. And there will be pressure to take a stance on 2022 soon. It will cost the moderates now dearly to get back to constructive ambiguity.

8/Laschet is boxed in on a central issue. And everyone is aware since yesterday that trying anything funny on fiscal policy will get you in big trouble - so much trouble that even the chancellor is forced to throw a close ally under the bus. You don't want to end up like @hbraun.

9/ So where does this leave us? Of course there is a chance that the Greens will push the CDU for changes to the debt brake in coalition talks. Of course there is a possibility that the Länder will notice that they'll get squeezed and will ask for changes.

10/ But nothing new and constructive will likely come out of the CDU itself until the election. And this will have knock-on effects for EU fiscal rules reform. Whoever thinks about this inside the party at the moment will become extra careful now.

11/ So this move yesterday has not made debt brake reform (and SGP reform) impossible, but it has made it harder. It has closed doors rather than opening new ones. And that still leaves me wondering: What the hell were they thinking?

And here is Christian's take for the optimistic outlook: https://twitter.com/COdendahl/status/1354344572944572420?s=20