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Industry scale movement is long term movement & long term movement is measured in bulk of years. Say, for example, you want to develop a generation of scriptwriters to service an industry's needs. The skill development journey is a 10 year journey you can split into 3 milestones
with the second milestone being the first major one. That second milestone is the stage at which the intermediate learner should either be transitioning into advanced levels or settling into advanced levels, depending on skill, learning speed, prior arts exposure etc.
No different than the arc of Bachelors-Masters-internship which is designed to develop one across the beginner-intermediate-advanced levels in preparation for professional service.
This means that if you want to have a generation of high quality writers developed by 2022, you should have started the development program in 2012. As you move from first to second to third milestones, the ability and level of professional responsibilities the students can
handle grows. That way the students are eased into professional service in a way that allows them learn on the job without exposing them to damaging impacts of the professional world that could cause them to regress.
Long term planning is measured in bulk of years, so you group the milestones as 3-4-3 and measure output/returns in the process of and at the end of each milestone. This is extremely important because a lot of artistic development works through accumulated learning and leaps.
For example, a beginner can spend 1-2 years not making any significant progress but is actually benefiting from an accumulation of learning and when a Rubicon is eventually crossed they experience a leap in ability that seems to have come out of nowhere. This is one reason why
later works (created post breakthrough) are often so far superior to earlier works (created pre-breakthrough) that they seem like they couldn't have come from the same mind (technically, they both did and didn't). A development program has to account for this inherent nature.
This bulk of years that you have to work with means that every year missed is a milestone delayed by one year and as the years go by the long term plan is delayed by the bulk of the passing years. Sticking with the writer development example (with a milestone division of 3-4-3)
if you wanted to have a generation of high quality writers by 2022 you should've started a development program by 2012 with a reasonable expectation of progress by:
'15-'16
'19-'20
And '21 onwards
'15-'16
'19-'20
And '21 onwards
If you haven't kicked off by 2012, your program and long term yield are pushed forward to 2013 and 2023.
If you haven't kicked off by 2017, they push forward to 2018 and 2027.
If they haven't kicked off by 2021, they push forward to 2022 and 2032.
If you haven't kicked off by 2017, they push forward to 2018 and 2027.
If they haven't kicked off by 2021, they push forward to 2022 and 2032.
(There's some more math behind it all but ain't nobody got time for that.)
Therein lies the devious trick in long term problems, they grow exponentially while we grow (and experience time) arithmetically. Should the best window(s) to initiate a long term plan be missed, it then
Therein lies the devious trick in long term problems, they grow exponentially while we grow (and experience time) arithmetically. Should the best window(s) to initiate a long term plan be missed, it then
requires willpower to re-initiate. If the subject is an individual, this would only be a problem to the individual who can't find the necessary willpower. But when the subject is an industry, ya, then you're in real trouble. First of all, it's never healthy for an industry to be
in a place where its advancements turn on soft characteristics like willpower. It means there are deeper deficiencies like the absence of a philosophy. Also, the complexity of consciousnesses at the collective level means soft characteristics grow at a very slow rate.
TLDR: Get thine shit together or be fooked.
