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I've been spending more time getting to know my neighbors, as it were.
Same industry but quite different...
$STERV.FH Stora Enso <- #3 position
$UPM.FH UPM-Kymmene
$HOLMB.SS Holmen
$SCAB.SS SCA
$BILL.SS BillerudKorsnäs
$METSB.FH Metsä Board
Nordic Forest Industry
Same industry but quite different...
$STERV.FH Stora Enso <- #3 position
$UPM.FH UPM-Kymmene
$HOLMB.SS Holmen
$SCAB.SS SCA
$BILL.SS BillerudKorsnäs
$METSB.FH Metsä Board
Nordic Forest Industry
Unless I am mistaken a key differentiator right out of the gate is forest lands with $BILL.SS BillerudKorsnäs & $METSB.FH Metsä Board having none.
Metsä Board is an extra special animal as they're controlled by a co-op of forest land owners.
Metsä Board is an extra special animal as they're controlled by a co-op of forest land owners.
On the topic of ownership, which is something to watch closely in Europe and especially the Nordics.
$METSB.FH Metsä Board
$BILL.SS BillerudKorsnäs
$METSB.FH Metsä Board
$BILL.SS BillerudKorsnäs
It immediately strikes me that $UPM.FH, UPM is lacking in a cornerstone shareholder of some sort. Someone with a long time horizon and corresponding strategy, etc.
Across the space things don't seem stretched and balance sheets seem 'ok'... Note that UPM has big capex coming.
Sort of a ceteris paribus framework just to get a lay of the land... Clearly Holmen and SCA are trading at premiums, what is driving that? UPM and BillerudKorsnäs are sort of neutral... Metsä Board and Stora Enso showing the most upside. Could just be bias in the model.
Making my way through $BILL.SS BillerudKorsnäs' CMD 2018, it seems '21 was set to be a big year as capex in the past few years breaths life into their margin stack circa today.
New mgmt since.
Unless changed, looking at a packaging play.
Not interested in owning forestlands.
New mgmt since.
Unless changed, looking at a packaging play.
Not interested in owning forestlands.
Wow I listened to their last call and there were no questions... 
