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I am researching how to build a dynasty team and looking at peak age. I figure this is a great way to decide what players to trade or to trade for.
FYI: This is a long thread and pretty wordy, but it is worth it!
FYI: This is a long thread and pretty wordy, but it is worth it!
So, first you have to decide where you fall in your league: You are either a contender or a rebuilder. ANYTHING else is just:
Once you have decided where you are, you have to make a plan:
1. If I am contending I want to buy players about peak in order to win a championship
2. If I am rebuilding I want to sell players about to peak, but before their value drops to get max value.
1. If I am contending I want to buy players about peak in order to win a championship
2. If I am rebuilding I want to sell players about to peak, but before their value drops to get max value.
I think the main position to do this with is RBs. I feel as though RBs peak sooner and fade away sooner. So, you need solid vets to contend and promising rookies, sophomores to rebuild. What am I looking for to know they are at their peak? Here is what I did...
First I took a sample from the past 5 years, 2016-2020, of the top 24 RBs in both PPR and NonPPR. I broke the down into 5 categories: Top 3, 6, 12, and 24. Then, I did a statistical analysis and found min, max, mean and median. The mean roughly equal to median, so no outliers.
For the most part there was not much of a difference between the two formats, at least not enough to matter IMO. So, I will focus on PPR for this. I also feel like the NFL trends differently every few years, so I compared the last 3 vs the last 5 years.
I thought that the last 3 years would show RBs performing at a much younger age, but overall not really. I think the main reason for this is Barkley and McCaffrey were hurt in 2020 and therefor older guys finished at the top. Oh well. I decided to go with the last 5 years.
1. Basically anyone can be a top 24, hell even a top 12 RB regardless of age. Will everyone still be playing at age 28+? No, but if they still got it at that age they can perform. I.E. Ingram in 2019
2. Same for rookies. Rookies have a very good chance at being a RB1/2 as well.
2. Same for rookies. Rookies have a very good chance at being a RB1/2 as well.
Top 24 RB ages from 2016-2020, on average:
Mean: 24.8
Max: 31.8
Min: 21.0
Median: 24.6
Top 12 RB ages from 2016-2020, on average:
Mean: 24.4
Max: 29.2
Min: 21.2
Median: 24.0
So, being a top 12 RB means you are, on average, slightly younger but not significantly.
Mean: 24.8
Max: 31.8
Min: 21.0
Median: 24.6
Top 12 RB ages from 2016-2020, on average:
Mean: 24.4
Max: 29.2
Min: 21.2
Median: 24.0
So, being a top 12 RB means you are, on average, slightly younger but not significantly.
The difference is at the top.
Top 6 RB ages from 2016-2020, on average:
Mean: 24.0
Max: 26.2
Min: 21.6
Median: 24.0
Top 3 RB ages from 2016-2020, on average:
Mean: 23.7
Max: 25.0
Min: 22.4
Median: 23.6
This is the where championships are won.
Top 6 RB ages from 2016-2020, on average:
Mean: 24.0
Max: 26.2
Min: 21.6
Median: 24.0
Top 3 RB ages from 2016-2020, on average:
Mean: 23.7
Max: 25.0
Min: 22.4
Median: 23.6
This is the where championships are won.
Max age drops by 3 (3!!!) years from Top 12 to Top 6 and mean and median both drop by 0.4. WOWZA! The young guns are definitely at the top of the ranks. If you want the best of the best you want a guy who is 23-25. That age is pulled from @pfref and the players age on 12/31.
I wanted to look at the Top 6 even more, so as @DFBeanCounter would say, let's dive in!
What are some significant features about the top 6 backs, which is very similar to the top 3? Like I said, they are most likely 23-25. However, they are usually in their 3rd or 4th year. What is even more interesting is that almost all of them were 21/22 at 12/31 as a rookie.
Who foots that bill in 2021? Mixon, McCaffrey, Montgomery, RoJo, Sanders, Jacobs, Barkley, and I added JT since he already has done it. I am not saying those 8 are the only ones fighting for the top 6, but they fit the mold. I would not bet on Sanders, Jacobs, Monty, or RoJo.
What does this all mean?
1. If you are contending buy some of the previously mentioned guys for 2021.
2. If you are rebuilding go sell Henry, Kamara, Jones, Chubb, Elliott, etc. They have peaked or will this year. Get value while you can. Trade them for Swift, Akers, Dobbins.
1. If you are contending buy some of the previously mentioned guys for 2021.
2. If you are rebuilding go sell Henry, Kamara, Jones, Chubb, Elliott, etc. They have peaked or will this year. Get value while you can. Trade them for Swift, Akers, Dobbins.
