Some thoughts on incoming Biden foreign policy team and the choices they face in Asia.
1. It’s a really experienced team and the more they fill the ranks in Asia policy the more that becomes clear.
2. There is a lot of linguistic and cultural experience which will bode well...
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... from Trade to Human Rights and all points in between.
3. Blinken’s confirmation hearing was disappointing in that he said nothing new-yes he had to get confirmed but it was a low bar. It would have been nice to hear some new ideas beyond the usual talking points..
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4.China-obviously the Elephant 🐘 in the room-US too is in Beijing-but as they say when the Elephants fight! and I think that’s the point-Confrontation, Competition, Cooperation etc are tired phrases-Washington needs a whole Asia approach not focused just through a China lens.
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5. China’s Asia policy is not through a US lens-it’s multi faceted and has goals but is ultimately pragmatic, incremental and has been surprisingly innovative. Washington needs to step up and shed zero sum from AIIB to RCEP from HK to Xinjiang. If it’s a rules based order..
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... then you have to abide and enforce and not lecture and ignore. If it’s containment it’s best to say it. If it’s pure strategic or economic or a mix signal-because even allies like Australia, Japan and ROK are confused and hedging. Singapore is the litmus test here.
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6.Development-it’s obvious that the US led institutions have not delivered Asia’s development needs-BRI has been patchy but largely welcomed, despite the breathless articles on debt trap diplomacy and jingoistically inspired conspiracy theories-The US should get on board
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7. ASEAN
Does not want to choose or be split - don’t push it! Washington may be surprised by where the chips fall. It’s not a US neighborhood more of a holiday home. Nations know that.
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8. Australia-Ignore the Sinophobia in the media and political racism-Canberra has some really mature ideas on the way forward from development and partners to integration of small and massive nation states alike. They have some innovative ideas about military posturing too!
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9. India-don’t do it Washington! It’s tempting on paper but the world’s biggest democracy is not a natural US ally whomever is in the White House. They have their own red lines as red as anything if not more so coming out of Beijing-A fiercely independent India is a necessity
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10. Ignore the small nations at your peril. Don’t lecture don’t bully-empathy is key from Cambodia to Vietnam from Fiji to Maldives.
11. Strength at home=strength abroad. It’s a cliche yet one that Washington has not embraced since 9/11. Jake Sullivan talks about Foreign policy for the Middle Class. This has been a policy practiced from Singapore to Shanghai for decades! One Asian import you’ll appreciate
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