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Got a lot of DMs today about the new Post https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/cdc-school-virus-spread/2021/01/26/bf949222-5fe6-11eb-9061-07abcc1f9229_story.html and NYT stories on school reopenings, https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/26/world/cdc-schools-reopening.html so going to put my thoughts here /1
Just to be clear, despite framing, this was not new CDC guidance. It was covering an article written by epidemiologists affiliated with CDC, but the Biden admin recently directed the ED and HHS to issue school reopening guidance, and this is not that /2
I haven't interviewed Dr. Honein, but if I do, I would ask her the following questions, which were not addressed in this 1349-word JAMA article. (Which is fine! But needs to be stated this was not an exhaustive summary of all the relevant research)/3 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2775875
I'd ask her to weigh in on the more recent studies in the U.S. that found when community transmission rates are high, reopened schools can further exacerbate community spread & hospitalizations + what level in the community she thinks is safe /4 https://theintercept.com/2021/01/06/school-reopening-studies-covid/
I'd ask about the recent data in the U.K and Israel that found young people more likely to be infected with COVID-19 ( https://www.wsj.com/articles/europes-schools-are-closing-again-on-concerns-they-spread-covid-19-11610805601 + https://www.wsj.com/articles/israel-to-vaccinate-high-schoolers-to-slow-infections-among-the-young-11611399036?st=0l94h9jtlzaeybz&reflink=article_copyURL_share) and the new Wuhan contact tracing study on household transmission /5 https://twitter.com/rmc031/status/1351329679895097346
The position in the JAMA paper was not really new for the CDC! For months the stance has been schools are very important, and we should try to keep them open as long as possible, by closing other things first. But our country hasn't materially supported those policy goals /6
What was more new in this compared to past CDC / CDC-affiliated writing that I've seen was more explicit warnings about school athletics as a risk of transmission /7
I think it’s worth noting that while the Post write-up of the study emphasized masking and social distancing, the JAMA article itself urges other things too, including better ventilation, expanding surveillance testing, and using hybrid attendance when needed to limit crowding /8
The authors also state quite clearly: “Staff and students should continue to have options for online education, particularly those at increased risk of severe illness or death if infected with SARS-CoV-2.” /9
The New York Times article writeup also Emily Oster's tracker. I don't really have the energy to go into that tonight, but I'll refer to @matt_barnum, who did a little thread on that piece today, and his article on the topic https://www.chalkbeat.org/2021/1/12/22227990/covid-teachers-school-reopening https://twitter.com/matt_barnum/status/1354174502226288646 /10
Anyway, vaccinating school employees will help schools reopen faster, and so will bringing down community rates. And so will funding public schools with the kind of mitigation measures many private schools have long been enjoying, like regular testing of staff + students. /11
There was also some new modeling out today ( https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.01.22.21250282v1) on impact of vaccination + other mitigation measures in schools /12: https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1354082337852633090
The curve of the virus has been trending in a hopeful direction https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1353858097865867264 but people are right to be concerned about the new more contagious variants, and how this could change transmission patterns, including in schools. We don't know yet /13
I guess just to end I don't think this changes really much except maybe more explicitly discouraging contact sports. Schools are important. Children + families are struggling. We need to get this virus under control and we should pay workers to stay home as much as possible /end
