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How, despite being our poorest actual defender, Zinchenko makes City a much better defensive side: A Short Thread.
Marti Perarnau spoke about the 15 pass rule in the excellent Pep Confidential boom. For those who don't know, in his first season at Bayern, Pep drilled in the...
Marti Perarnau spoke about the 15 pass rule in the excellent Pep Confidential boom. For those who don't know, in his first season at Bayern, Pep drilled in the...
...idea of the 15 pass rule. The idea behind the 15 pass rule us that it takes, on average, around 15 passes to gain enough control of the ball and positional control of the pitch to prevent the opponent from countering in the event that possession is lost. What Pep teams are...
(3)...trying to achieve is positional play that blocks passing lanes and exits should a player turn the ball over. Furthermore, 15 passes is believed to the minimum number of passes before opposition players are pulled out of position enough to be able to be capitalised on....
(4)...and as a result, the attacking team should be able to fashion chances, or at least play a pass with risk, safe in the knowledge that there should be no counter. Now, when we think of Zinchenko as a left back, we tend go focus on his lack of athleticism, strength, height...
(5)...and defensive experience, and therefore label him as a weak link. And when he does make a mistake, we quickly point to the mistake as proof that he is not a left back (although we don't do that when players who play in their natural position also make similar mistakes)...
...(6)However, he is one of the main contributors to our build up play, frequently having a significant number of touches and passes during games. Indeed, in PL games, he averages 13 more passes per game than Benjamin Mendy and has a 6.5% higher success rate. His passing is...
(7)...also more successful over longer distances, playing only 1.5 inaccurate long passes (Mendy = 2.5) per game. Crossing is where you would expect Mendy to excel, but again statistically, Zinchenko is slightly better. From a defensive standpoint, Zinchenko makes a much bigger..
(8)..contribution, making .7 more interceptions and tackles per game than Mendy. Most startling is the 'dribbled past' stat where Zinchenko actually outshines every full back in the squad, in particularly Mendy and Cancelo. Zinchenko is dribbled past .3 times per game, whereas...
(9)..Mendy is dribbled past 1.3x per game and Cancelo 1.5x per game. Out of interest, Walker is only dribbled past .4x per game. So, although as a fan base, we highlight Zinchenko as the weak link from a defensive stand point, the statistics certainly don't support this notion.
(10) So, we having already compared Zinchenko with Mendy, both offensively and defensively, it is probably worth comparing Zinchenko with Cancelo as this highlights why Zinchenko is very important to City's build-up and why having a Cancelo 2.0 at left back could be detrimental.
(11) I mentioned earlier in this thread about the Guardiola 15 pass rule and how it is essential in allowing us to gain control of the ball and the pitch. This control and subsequent chance creation can only occur if the balance between safety and creativity is correct...
(12) From a safety point of view, Cancelo is less secure with the ball. He is dispossessed at a higher rate than Zinchenko by .5 dispossessions per game. This may not sound like much, but the baseline figure is very low, and dispossessions break the rhythm and lead to counters.
(13) In addition to this, Cancelo loses possession (through misplaced passes, crosses, dribbles) 16x pg vs 13.7pg for Zinchenko. Obviously, Cancelo is more ambitious with his play, so this comes as no surprise.
(14) Cancelo's ambition is evidenced in the number of big chances he has created this season (6) and the number of assists (2), although for balance, he plays higher up than Zinchenko and averages considerably more touches in the opponent's box (3.5 vs 0.4)..
(15) However, Zinchenko' s offensive contribution starts much deeper on the pitch and extends into the final third without actually spending much time in the final third. He is the secondary escape route for the CB's if Rodri' s lane is blocked, and his low centre of gravity...
(16)...enables him to pivot quickly and turn away from a pressing attacker. His positional fluidity also enables him to invert and create triangles with Rodri and Gundogan, while also being able to support Foden/Sterling on the left. On top of this, his contribution to the ...
(17)..the attacking phase is also evidence in the fact that he only averages 3 less passes into the final third per game than Cancelo, despite spending the vast majority of his time in the deeper 2/3s of the pitch. This quality was most evident in the win at Stanford Bridge...
(18)...where Zinchenko played entry passes into the final third for the 2 opening goals. Naturally, Foden and KDB received praise for the goals, but the goals only occur because of Zinchenko's progressive and timely passing which turned transition into attack.
(19) This contribution came in City's best performance (at the time) of the season and is now seen as the starting point of our excellent run of recent form. Zinchenko has been a mainstay in the side during this run, just as he was during the second half of the 18/19 title...
(20)..where City remarkably won all 22 of the games Zinchenko was involved in, conceding just 7 goals in the process. At the time, it was deemed a bit of a statistical quirk. However, the similarities between that run and our current run are starting to look very obvious...
I don't particularly have the following to spread this thread any further than my own timeline so would appreciate retweets where possible - @9320pod @howiehok3434 @SamLee @StevenMcinerney @SteTudor123 @City_Xtra @cityreport_ @ManCity @CityDailys
