So this is for my own personal mental health as much as anything. But, some vaccine rollout information for Contra Costa County. Shout out @CoCoHealth which is doing an INCREDIBLE job at communicating.

So how far away are we all from getting a vaccine in real life?

First, they deliver quite a bit of information via a public facing dashboard: https://www.coronavirus.cchealth.org/vaccine 

I'm assuming that given we know people that work in healthcare org's that do not see patients and WFH, that all Phase 1A folks are done. IE, everybody at a hospital or patient facing medical office is vaccinated. My allergist office is ready for their 2nd shot as an example

CCC had opened up to 65+ for a week then they had to pull back to only 75+

On the website today, they said that they've done 11k out of approximately 77k at 75+

Looking at the vaccine dashboard, seems like maybe they're up to 16k of that group.

So let's call it, 60k to go

The census doesn't break it down over 75 and over 65, but they give a nice over 65 years old estimate.

In total looks like 16% of the county is over 65.

So that works out to approximately 200k people.

Some easy math, 200k-77k leaves 123k people between 65 and 74.

Out of that 123k though, only 14k shots have been given.

So there's 109k people in that group to go.

To sum up, here's who remains from the age based groups:

75+: 60k to go
65+ 109k to go

So we've got 169k people remaining in the age based groups. Contra Costa County have said they can do 6k shots a day. Assuming that.

Yeah, that takes us close to the end of Feb

I'm going to assume that maybe 75% of those in those age ranges will accept the vaccine and can be reached though. So maybe a more realistic time frame is that 120k age based folks need shots and they're doing 6k shots a day.

20 days for everyone to get their first shots

I know there's second shots, but I am assuming that there's some increase in supply over time that will allow them to not slow down their initial shots significantly.

So CCC by my quick math gets to teachers by Feb 15th. If we're lucky and they continue to be good