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1/My latest @bopinion post is about Biden's call for an immigrant amnesty -- a path to citizenship for the country's 11+ million undocumented immigrants. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-01-25/biden-s-amnesty-won-t-bring-more-immigrant-caravans
2/Illegal immigration halted and went into reverse sometime in 2007.
But would Biden's amnesty restore the pre-2007 situation?
Possible, but highly unlikely.
But would Biden's amnesty restore the pre-2007 situation?
Possible, but highly unlikely.
3/First of all, many people believe that Reagan's 1986 amnesty -- the biggest in American history -- was responsible for the huge wave of illegal immigration.
But in fact, it probably *reduced* that wave. https://voxeu.org/article/us-immigration-reform-and-mexican-migration-dynamics
But in fact, it probably *reduced* that wave. https://voxeu.org/article/us-immigration-reform-and-mexican-migration-dynamics
4/Also, how many people would upend their lives and go live a fugitive underground life in a strange land in the hope of another amnesty 35 YEARS LATER? It makes no sense!!
5/But more fundamentally, a lot has changed between 1986 and 2021.
For one thing, Mexicans just don't have many kids anymore.
For one thing, Mexicans just don't have many kids anymore.
6/Families need some minimum number of kids to stay home and take care of the aging parents. With a fertility rate of 2 instead of 4, there just aren't extra kids to send north to work and send remittances.
7/Not only that, but Mexico's GDP per capita (in PPP terms) is about $20,000.
That's well past the level when emigration pressure tends to drop off.
http://ftp.iza.org/dp8592.pdf
That's well past the level when emigration pressure tends to drop off.
http://ftp.iza.org/dp8592.pdf
8/Plus, it's simply a lot harder to get to the U.S. and stay in the U.S. than it used to be.
One reason is that Bush actually "built the wall", with the Secure Fence Act of 2006.
https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2006/10/20061026-1.html
One reason is that Bush actually "built the wall", with the Secure Fence Act of 2006.
https://georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov/news/releases/2006/10/20061026-1.html
