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If implication in this tag is that I've been pushing a different narrative, I don't think that's accurate. I'm not even sure what "the current narrative" is. (Thread.) https://twitter.com/Zuky43/status/1354087112967073792
Several factors Marc points to (and others I could mention, like personnel in Biden admin), I agree, do favor return to normalization. That's what I'd like to see. https://twitter.com/msfcuba1/status/1353855667321319428?s=20
This also seems like a positive development/opportunity: https://www.wsj.com/articles/biden-administration-to-review-possible-sanctions-relief-in-response-to-covid-19-11611354940
But there are also a host of factors that may mitigate—for one, a different regional balance of power and lack of regional leadership pushing the Cuba issue as aggressively with Washington as in the past, as suggested here (notwithstanding the UN vote): https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/latamcaribbean/2021/01/19/bidens-latin-america-policy-will-be-constrained-more-by-weak-regional-leadership-than-by-floridas-electoral-politics/
There's also the risk domestic political folks in the Biden admin, based on 2020 election, conclude too simplistically that too much Cuba "engagement" is bad for "the Cuban vote."
(This is how some in the Democratic Party read Miami's election results.)
(This is how some in the Democratic Party read Miami's election results.)
As for Cuba's reforms, yes they're ongoing, and they can help convince Washington to play ball (as they did in 2014). But so far currency reform has not been followed by measures like PYME) needed to help Cuban economy recover from devaluation's costs: https://www.elnuevoherald.com/noticias/mundo/america-latina/cuba-es/article248449150.html
And if there's a "current narrative" that is more pessimistic, or just reserved, it's also being abetted by some voices in the Cuban public square who see a Trojan Horse around every corner and don't seem that interested in normalization recommencing in earnest.
(Honestly, some columns lately have all of the rigor of a OANN report.
(Here's one response: https://eltoque.com/la-cobardia-de-la-desinformacion/)
(Here's one response: https://eltoque.com/la-cobardia-de-la-desinformacion/)
None of this is to say I don't expect positive movement from Washington, or willing partners for that movement in Havana (as made clear in interview below). I agree onus is on Biden admin to repair damage—above all to Cuban families / individuals. https://news.yahoo.com/cuba-hopes-biden-quickly-resume-163403629.html
But I think it's an open question how far they will go, how quickly, and how developments in Cuba could influence them either way. (Yes, the latter matter.) Time will tell.
