Billionaires are always right.

News Flash: They don't have all the answers. No one does.

Instead, beware of advice from the successful.

Welcome to Survivorship Bias.

THREAD

1/ Survivorship bias is when we consider only the winners without all the losers.

Our brains are obsessed with finding cause and effect.

Therefore, we try to find patterns when they don't exist.

2/ During WW2, the US military studied aircrafts returning from war to try to reduce aircraft casualties.

After mapping the damage, they found that most bullet holes were in the wings and tails.

Conclusion: Wings/tails are vulnerable and we must FORTIFY them.

Not so fast...

3/ Statistician Abraham Wald disagreed.

"Armour the engines!"

The planes that didn't return are the ones they had failed to consider.

This is the origin of Survivorship Bias.

4/ The Misconception: You should focus on the successful if you wish to become successful.

The Truth: When failure becomes invisible, the difference between failure and success may also become invisible.

As @nntaleb says, "the cemetery of failed restaurants is very silent."

5/ "A stupid decision that works out well becomes a brilliant decision in hindsight.”
- Psychologist Daniel Kahneman

History is written by the winners.

Business books are written by billionaires.

However, we rarely learn from those who failed.

6/ What we ignore?

We put people on a pedestal who break the rules and ignore conventions.

Bill Gates and Zuck dropped out of college and are billionaires!

These are extreme outliers.

We ignore...
• timing
• luck
• connections
• socio-economic background

7/ Ok, SO WHAT? HOW CAN THIS HELP ME?

Glad you asked...

Tactical Approach:
• Don't focus on stories and individuals
• Focus on systems and concepts that can be applied to your situation

And MOST IMPORTANTLY.

• Focus on WHY it failed instead of only successes

8/ Hope you enjoyed this!

Follow me @chrishlad for 2 threads/week on systems and concepts that help you win.