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"THE RED SEA: NEW SPACES OF INTERDEPENDENT SECURITY ISSUES BETWEEN COUNTRIES OF THE GULF AND OF THE HORN OF AFRICA" with @berlinest https://www.irsem.fr/institut/actualites/research-paper-no-75-translation.html
The Horn of Africa has long been at the crossroads of theb rivalries between global powers. In that regard, the battle over control of Red Sea ports described above, is helping redefine alliances and antagonisms there. https://www.irsem.fr/institut/actualites/research-paper-no-75-translation.html
As we can currently observe it : the involvement of extra-regional powers is changing the distribution of power, creating new threats and opportunities for Horn countries. @RAbdiAnalyst
Given the growing interest of Gulf actors in the strategic geographical areas bordering the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, the countries of the Horn have attempted to exploit this new dynamic.
They took advantage of reshaped political alliances in the Gulf to consolidate their regimes, but also defend and pursue their strategic interests.
Ethiopia aspires to become a regional hegemon, and it has grown closer to Gulf countries to that end. https://academic.oup.com/ia/article/94/5/1059/5092073
Although it has successfully established itself internationally as a security provider and the largest contributor of peacekeeping troops, its neighbors continue to question its legitimacy. @jpremylemonde
The peace agreement between Eritrea and Ethiopia was encouraged and supported by many foreign powers. The current U.S. Ambassador to Somalia, Donald Yamamoto, is said to have played a key role in this historic rapprochement https://www.indepthnews.net/index.php/the-world/horn-of-africa/4177-the-three-country-alliance-against-tigray-might-jeopardise-ethiopia-s-future @martinplaut
Alex de Waal emphasizes that if the Pax Arabica replaces the Pax Americana in the region, it can only be a tempo-
rary achievement. Never forget a "Pax romania, america, etc" does not mean real peace. This historic concept mean peace without being peace
rary achievement. Never forget a "Pax romania, america, etc" does not mean real peace. This historic concept mean peace without being peace
The part played by Gulf states in the pacification process is reflected in the marginalization of Djibouti: the calmer relations between Addis Ababa and Asmara are opening up other ports to Ethiopia.
Systemic challenges remain to be addressed in all states. J.-N. Bach and Jeanne Aisserge believe that it was too early to speak of a democratization in Ethiopia, although one can observe “an authoritarian decompression.” @CFEE_addis @rene_renelefort https://cedejsudan.hypotheses.org/2487
Abiy has played a risky game. Without electoral legitimacy, he tried to turn the political game around to pave the way for the 2020 elections
The war against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) is part – but only a part – of a multidimensional crisis. In the early 1990s, when the Tigrayan-led coalition took power, they adopted a new Constitution setting up ethnic federalism in Ethiopia.
Today, the political landscape pits unionists, ethno-federalists and federalists against each other. Hence, everyone has a different reading of the 1994 Constitution. @africaupdate
Isaias is the first beneficiary of the civil war in Tigray. Alex DeWaal:“[he] has longed for Ethiopia to be in turmoil. In the 1990s he described Ethiopia as like Yugoslavia, destined to fragment. His two biggest fears are the Ethiopian army and the TPLF' https://sites.tufts.edu/reinventingpeace/2020/11/19/who-benefits-from-the-destruction-of-ethiopia/
This rapprochement between the states of the two regions could once again be achieved at the expense of the stability of Somalia, where the damages caused by the rivalries between Gulf countries have been clearly demonstrated.
Frictions between Gulf states and the Somali government of President Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed “Farmajo” have exacerbated tensions over the distribution of power and resources between Mogadishu and the federated states. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/1/25/somali-troops-jubbaland-regional-forces-battle-near-kenya-border
The growing interdependence of security issues between the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula does not imply equality between the states: the countries of the Horn are falling behind the rich states of the peninsula.
