A brief thread on what U.S. military contingency access in Saudi Arabia is all about, what it means for U.S. presence in the Middle East, and why this is suddenly public news. https://twitter.com/KatieBoWill/status/1353783117258104836

The new access to ports and airfields in Saudi Arabia intends to create operational flexibility and move U.S. assets farther away from the worst Iranian threat rings. I’ve written about the benefits of a distributed basing structure with @aaronstein1. https://warontherocks.com/2020/12/small-distributed-and-secure-a-new-basing-architecture-for-the-middle-east/

But the new access agreements in KSA are less about offensive operations and more about logistics. In this case, access is supposed to enable CENTCOM’s Western Sustainment Network, a logistics system intended to withstand chokepoints and reduce deployment costs and timelines.

Having a flexible logistics network that can flow in forces and equipment in case of a crisis or contingency is an essential building block of shifting to a reduced presence. If you untie equipment and forces from brick and mortar bases, you need a plan to get them into theater.

This doesn’t mean the announcement augurs a drawdown in U.S. forces in the region, but it helps such a plan become more feasible. Similarly, access to these ports and airfields does not necessarily mean an expansion of U.S. military presence. Contingency access ≠ daily presence.

The United States holds contingency access agreements with countries around the world. It means the U.S. can use a facility during a military crisis or under certain criteria. These are identified for their operational benefit and regularly negotiated with host nations.

Saudi Arabia is no different. But it is worth remembering that U.S. military access in KSA has been a tricky issue. Historically, the Saudis have restricted, reduced, or revoked U.S. contingency access, particularly during ongoing operations.

Contingency access in KSA has needed to be revised time and time again. The thing is, these negotiations are usually private. What’s different this time? CENTCOM has been cruising for a bruising. It has grabbed a lot of resources, despite being an AOR of lower priority.

Publicly announcing this news is a subtle power play by CENTCOM. It allows them to demonstrate how they could support a drawdown plan they see likely in a Biden admin without losing resources, all while reassuring the Saudis under DoD’s renewed emphasis on allies and partners.