Read on Twitter
1.
Covid-19 is a sprawling crisis—everything from macroeconomics to remote parliamentary votes will eventually be trawled over by an enquiry
But as the UK toll closes in on 100,000 one question can't wait: why did so many people have to die? https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/covid-19-the-unofficial-uk-inquiry-coronavirus-nhs
Covid-19 is a sprawling crisis—everything from macroeconomics to remote parliamentary votes will eventually be trawled over by an enquiry
But as the UK toll closes in on 100,000 one question can't wait: why did so many people have to die? https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/covid-19-the-unofficial-uk-inquiry-coronavirus-nhs
2.
On mid-Jan figures, a randomly-chosen Brit was ... 35 times more likely to have died of Covid than a random Australian
The same same lethal risk was
- 39-fold that in Japan,
- 55-times that in S Korea
- 249-times that in NZ
On mid-Jan figures, a randomly-chosen Brit was ... 35 times more likely to have died of Covid than a random Australian
The same same lethal risk was
- 39-fold that in Japan,
- 55-times that in S Korea
- 249-times that in NZ
3.
Closer to home, the lethal risk was
- a quarter higher than France
- a third higher than "unlocked" Sweden
- more than double Germany
- 13 timess Norway
As we went to press, most ratios were going wrong way
Risk worse even than US, where Trump's denial left world aghast
Closer to home, the lethal risk was
- a quarter higher than France
- a third higher than "unlocked" Sweden
- more than double Germany
- 13 timess Norway
As we went to press, most ratios were going wrong way
Risk worse even than US, where Trump's denial left world aghast
4.
One question then can't await the appointment of commissioners who "take minutes and waste years"
So @gabyhinsliff @philipcball and myself set ourselves up as an unofficial @prospect_uk enquiry
One question then can't await the appointment of commissioners who "take minutes and waste years"
So @gabyhinsliff @philipcball and myself set ourselves up as an unofficial @prospect_uk enquiry
5.
With strong science and healthcare, the UK SHOULD have been prepared — indeed, was rated as well prepared for a novel pandemic as late as 2019
With strong science and healthcare, the UK SHOULD have been prepared — indeed, was rated as well prepared for a novel pandemic as late as 2019
6.
But we had prepared for the wrong thing—a new flu
Flu symptoms show up at once, so test, trace and isolation don't matter
With Covid, they're essential
And so you need the competence to set that system up
But we had prepared for the wrong thing—a new flu
Flu symptoms show up at once, so test, trace and isolation don't matter
With Covid, they're essential
And so you need the competence to set that system up
7.
The centralised, clunky and outsourced British state struggled (to say the least)
Worse, rather than frankly admit the catastrophic overwhelming of test-and-trace last spring, Whitehall's scientific top brass put an odd on gloss on things — suggesting it was no longer needed
The centralised, clunky and outsourced British state struggled (to say the least)
Worse, rather than frankly admit the catastrophic overwhelming of test-and-trace last spring, Whitehall's scientific top brass put an odd on gloss on things — suggesting it was no longer needed
8.
Even more ruinous was the indulgence of herd immunity, a phrase from vaccine programmes, abjectly inapplicable to a virus with a material mortality rate
Sage meetings were initially in the dark, so such bad ideas couldn't be exposed & shot down as they should have been
Even more ruinous was the indulgence of herd immunity, a phrase from vaccine programmes, abjectly inapplicable to a virus with a material mortality rate
Sage meetings were initially in the dark, so such bad ideas couldn't be exposed & shot down as they should have been
9.
The biggest strategic error was believing there was a health-wealth trade-off
In fact, even over a few months, countries that clamped down hardest on the virus suffered the smallest GDP hit
The UK govt always struggled to understand it -- and still does
The biggest strategic error was believing there was a health-wealth trade-off
In fact, even over a few months, countries that clamped down hardest on the virus suffered the smallest GDP hit
The UK govt always struggled to understand it -- and still does
10.
But it did get one big thing right—at first
In understood that compliance with lockdowns and isolation relied on containing the economic fear factor: it moved quickly to maintain jobs & wages
For a while...
But it did get one big thing right—at first
In understood that compliance with lockdowns and isolation relied on containing the economic fear factor: it moved quickly to maintain jobs & wages
For a while...
11.
But HMG stubbornly insisted things would be going back to normal by autumn
The furlough was set to run out on October 31
The PM announced it would go for 6 extra months just 6 hours before it was due to finish
Redunancies were already given out on basis it would stop
But HMG stubbornly insisted things would be going back to normal by autumn
The furlough was set to run out on October 31
The PM announced it would go for 6 extra months just 6 hours before it was due to finish
Redunancies were already given out on basis it would stop
12.
From "eat out to help out" on, the impressive early economic protection became mired in confusion
In the few days since we wrote "report" the idea of £500 for a positive test has been floated & shot down while sick pay remains at £95.85 a week
Isolation often unaffordable
From "eat out to help out" on, the impressive early economic protection became mired in confusion
In the few days since we wrote "report" the idea of £500 for a positive test has been floated & shot down while sick pay remains at £95.85 a week
Isolation often unaffordable
13.
Whether it's clear and consistent messaging or effective implementation, leadership is essential
There's no accounting such wild swerves as sending children back to school to mix & spread the virus for a single day this January without considering the man in No 10
Whether it's clear and consistent messaging or effective implementation, leadership is essential
There's no accounting such wild swerves as sending children back to school to mix & spread the virus for a single day this January without considering the man in No 10
14.
Delay last spring cost 20,000 lives — but it can be at least partially excused as the science was still falling into place
Drift since the autumn repeats the errors, and is less forgivable
Cheltenham gold cup was one thing, waging war on experts over Xmas quite another
Delay last spring cost 20,000 lives — but it can be at least partially excused as the science was still falling into place
Drift since the autumn repeats the errors, and is less forgivable
Cheltenham gold cup was one thing, waging war on experts over Xmas quite another
15.
Even after his grave personal brush with the virus, Boris Johnson never grappled with it as a public policy problem with the humility it deserved
The requisite command and resolve was not there—and Britain is counting the cost in lives.
Even after his grave personal brush with the virus, Boris Johnson never grappled with it as a public policy problem with the humility it deserved
The requisite command and resolve was not there—and Britain is counting the cost in lives.
16.
No doubt we've missed stuff and made errors. Just hope we can get an urgent conversation going
Of interest? @soniasodha @janemerrick23 @Samfr @BBCHughPym @richardhorton1 @jburnmurdoch @doctor_oxford @amateuradam
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/covid-19-the-unofficial-uk-inquiry-coronavirus-nhs
No doubt we've missed stuff and made errors. Just hope we can get an urgent conversation going
Of interest? @soniasodha @janemerrick23 @Samfr @BBCHughPym @richardhorton1 @jburnmurdoch @doctor_oxford @amateuradam
https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/covid-19-the-unofficial-uk-inquiry-coronavirus-nhs
