1) With Quebec posting its lowest daily tally of #COVID19 cases in nearly two months Monday and hospitalizations declining for six days, enough time has elapsed to consider the province’s curfew a qualified success. In this thread, I'll explain why it’s not an unqualified one.

2) Two weeks ago, Montreal hospitals reported nearly 750 #COVID19 hospitalizations and intensive-care units were overflowing. By Monday, that number plunged to 631, down from 637 the day before. Only Sacré-Coeur and St. Mary’s were treating an above-average number of patients.

3) Although the province’s long-term care centres and seniors’ residences were still battling a total of 33 critical #COVID19 outbreaks on Monday, institutions were declaring two or three new cases, not 20 to 30 as they had done just before the curfew.

4) The curfew is clearly having an impact on nighttime emergency room visits in Montreal, with people likely deciding to show up at the ER the next morning. The chart below reveals that ER overcrowding remains a problem in a handful of acute-care hospitals, not across the board.

5) Meanwhile, Montreal recorded 478 #COVID19 infections Monday, down from 580 the previous day. Recall that on Jan. 9, the day the curfew went into effect, the metropolis set a record 1,531 cases. The city’s seven-day average also dipped to 29.09 cases per 100,000 residents.

6) At the neighborhood level, I haven’t seen numbers like these in weeks. The health district of Petite Patrie-Villeray counted just 16 new cases Monday. With the exception of Rivière-des-Prairies, Anjou and Montreal East, all other districts reported far fewer than 100 cases.

7) However, the reason that the government’s latest #pandemic restrictions can’t be deemed an unqualified success is that #COVID19 outbreaks are continuing to rise in daycares and schools, and are still a problem in the workplace.

8) Clusters of #COVID19 cases increased by four to 83 in schools on Monday and by one to 96 in daycares, calling into doubt the government’s refusal to install air purifiers in overcrowded and poorly ventilated classrooms.

9) The Quebec Education Ministry disclosed that on Friday, schools across Quebec were compelled to shutter another 113 classrooms due to #COVID19, for a total of 624. The number of active cases among students and staff rose by 185 to 2,193.

10) Is Quebec experiencing some kind of calm before the #pandemic storm? Vaccinations have dropped off amid delays in shipments by Pfizer. In neighboring Ontario, there are concerns the highly transmissible B117 variant might have spread into the community.

11) In Montreal, police have had to break up large orthodox religious gatherings over the weekend, and on Monday, more than a dozen McGIll University students were evicted from a residence for failing to socially distance. This crisis isn’t over by a long shot. End of thread.