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Thread - EFL xT vs Non Penalty xG
At @insightMrkt there's numerous high level tools/models we use to assess our clubs performance. One of these is to look at Expected Threat (xT) vs Non penalty expected goals (NPxG)
At @insightMrkt there's numerous high level tools/models we use to assess our clubs performance. One of these is to look at Expected Threat (xT) vs Non penalty expected goals (NPxG)
For those unclear xT is a model that assigns a value to any action on the pitch and looks to measure the team's chances of scoring in the next 5 actions due to the action made. On a team level when summed, xT can tell us which teams are moving ball to most dangerous areas...
and consequently when compared to NPxG we can see which teams move ball to most threatening areas & how they convert that threat into actual goal scoring chances.
EFL Championship (Descriptions below)
Norwich are very much the kings of the league as an attacking force with their incredible combination play and sheer quality making them a step above the rest offensively #ncfc
#rovers are an interesting case study. No team in league has scored more goals and their....
#rovers are an interesting case study. No team in league has scored more goals and their....
underlying performance metrics back that up as one of most potent and creative attacks in the league. Certainly no offensive issues for Blackburn to improve on, more on the defensive side!
#QPR another interesting case. QPR are a very good offensive team, such a high xT....
#QPR another interesting case. QPR are a very good offensive team, such a high xT....
shows that they consistently move the ball into dangerous areas, and they are converting that into enough chances but poor finishing and an even poorer defensive aspect to their game is really hurting them.
#bfc are really interesting too. A very different team to previous years
#bfc are really interesting too. A very different team to previous years
This Brentford side is built on solid foundations and whilst they can still be very deadly and potent, it's done in a different way with less sustained pressure. They are exceptionally clinical with turning their pressure into chances.
A glimpse into why perhaps Neil Harris struggled at Cardiff this season at times #ccfc. Generated chances but really struggled to have sustained pressure in right areas due to their direct play.
As Wayne Rooney has found at Derby their ability to turn pressure into chances and then take those chances has been fairly abysmal all season. Rooney certainly tried to address that best he can so far but added personnel clearly required up front #DCFC
EFL League One xT vs Non Penalty xG (descriptions below)
League One is really fun this year with lots of teams in the mix for various promotion/playoff challenges. #pafc Argyle are one of the best attacking teams in the league. The patterns of play are fantastic when building from the back especially.
#mkdons are by far and away the best possession team in the league & often move that possession into great areas!
#crewealex also another team who seemingly move ball to dangerous areas and create with ease.
#crewealex also another team who seemingly move ball to dangerous areas and create with ease.
#bafc are a weird outlier. Poor and strandard at the bottom of the league BUT with a team that can progress ball to dangerous areas consistenly, just struggle to turn that into chances!
EFL League 2 xT vs Non Penalty xG (descriptions below)
League 2 i've discussed with many as my personal favourite of the 3 this year. Wide open for a bunch of teams and not alot between 8-10 teams. Some really interesting cases here with league leaders Cambridge not fairing that well on either metric!
Forest Green Rovers without....
Forest Green Rovers without....
a doubt the "class" team in league in terms of possessions and moving ball to sustained pressure in dangerous areas.
Walsall in 10th & Exeter in 6th 2 sides you may not want to sleep on certainly from an offensive standpoint of getting the ball into right areas & then creating
Walsall in 10th & Exeter in 6th 2 sides you may not want to sleep on certainly from an offensive standpoint of getting the ball into right areas & then creating
