Things that makes you go hmm
Reproduction rate vs Stringency index in Europe
overall R² = 2.36%
#Covid_19

Hmm continues
Positive rate vs vs Stringency index in Europe
R²=3.99%
notice fitted values higher for positive rate when stringency index higher
#Covid_19

another hmm
New cases per million vs Stringency index in Europe
R²=1.09%
#Covid_19

hmm
Tests per cases vs Stringency index in Europe
R²=1.18%
#Covid_19

Weekly hospi. admission / mil. vs Stringency index in Europe
R²=1.52%
#Covid_19

Weekly ICU admission / mil. vs Stringency index in Europe
R²=0.68%
#Covid_19

New deaths / mil. vs Stringency index in Europe
R²=4.12%
#Covid_19

Evolution of stringency index over time in Western Europe
Notice the seasonal pattern ?
eventually this index just mimics seasonality :D
hence any expected outcome on seasonal virus is... meh ?
#Covid_19

Evolution of stringency index over time in Eastern Europe
similar seasonal pattern (except Belarusia champ !)
#Covid_19

Sensitivity of reproduction rate to stringency index in Western Europe (30 days rolling window regression)
#Covid_19

Sensitivity of reproduction rate to stringency index in Eastern Europe (30 days rolling window regression)
data starts later than in West
a few noticable jumps, Croatia champ in summer (?)
#Covid_19

(self promo :) https://t.me/chrisgodlak 

Regressing reproduction rate on stringency index (controlling for weeks)
Coefficient ~ 0
but spot the negative coef. for weeks over time
#Covid_19

Reg. positive rate on stringency index
coef ~0
spot the seasonality through week's effects
#Covid_19

Reg. new cases per mil. on stringency index
coef ~0
spot again the seasonality for week's coefficients :)
#Covid_19

Reg. weekly hospi. admissions per mil. on stringency index
coef ~0
weeks coef. show again seasonality
#Covid_19

Reg. weekly icu admissions per mil. on stringency index
coef ~0
weeks & seasonality :)
#Covid_19

Reg. new deaths per mil. on stringency index
coef ~0
but those weeks coefficients again !
hello seasonality
#Covid_19

forgot to state at beginning, for all previous graphics, it is Europe only

(self promo, if you like meow stat: https://t.me/chrisgodlak )

@threadreaderapp unroll