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What's going on with vaccine supply?
A THREAD on the current situation
A THREAD on the current situation
The UK's vaccination programme had a mixed weekend.
Saturday: a new high, well above the required rate to meet the government's 15m target by 15 February
Sunday: lowest reported total for some time
Saturday: a new high, well above the required rate to meet the government's 15m target by 15 February
Sunday: lowest reported total for some time
Ministers have always said that the limiting factor is supply, but they have refused to give figures on the number of vaccine doses coming into the UK
The only official statistics we've have been were accidentally published a two weeks ago by the Scottish government
The only official statistics we've have been were accidentally published a two weeks ago by the Scottish government
When I used those numbers to make an estimate for the UK as a whole, the results were very encouraging
It seemed as if the UK would soar over the mid-Feb target. There was talk of vaccinating all adults by June or July https://twitter.com/rowlsmanthorpe/status/1350188504597336067
It seemed as if the UK would soar over the mid-Feb target. There was talk of vaccinating all adults by June or July https://twitter.com/rowlsmanthorpe/status/1350188504597336067
But in practice, things haven’t worked out like that
This graph shows actual doses compared to the Scottish projections. They're a good way down
This graph shows actual doses compared to the Scottish projections. They're a good way down
I don't think anyone will be surprised to hear that the problem lies with the supply chain. Since those Scottish projections were published, Pfizer in particular has had difficulties meeting its supply schedule for he UK
But knowing in a general way that vaccines aren't coming quickly enough isn't *that* helpful. How much slower are they? How bad is the supply problem?
To put it another way: are there any numbers we can use to get a sense of the situation
Well, actually, there are
To put it another way: are there any numbers we can use to get a sense of the situation
Well, actually, there are
Last week MPs in Yorkshire were given the region's vaccine supply schedule for the next four weeks
Yorkshire has been promised 13% of the UK's allocation. Knowing these numbers, we can work out what the rest of the UK will get https://twitter.com/kevin_larkin/status/1352388464046727168
Yorkshire has been promised 13% of the UK's allocation. Knowing these numbers, we can work out what the rest of the UK will get https://twitter.com/kevin_larkin/status/1352388464046727168
Sorry, wrong tweet from that thread. This is the one https://twitter.com/kevin_larkin/status/1352393701633515527?s=19
Before I get to the projection, a word on those numbers, because their provenance is not entirely certain. One MP on the call told me that “the message was so confused... no-one was clear what the plan was.” There've also been accusations that Yorkshire is having supply removed
As the government won't publish supply figures, it's hard to be sure about these things. But I spoke to a senior public health official who told me the numbers sounded right. (FWIW they also said any redistribution was *in* Yorkshire, not between Yorkshire and other regions.)
Anyway, let's get to the bit you want to hear about: the projection
Here it is - and overall it's good news
We should still have 2m doses a week. And the government should be able to meet its target. Just
Here it is - and overall it's good news
We should still have 2m doses a week. And the government should be able to meet its target. Just
I advanced the numbers by a week in order to give the supply time to get to the NHS. By that measure, it should have had access to 14.2m doses by 15 February. That's well within the margin of error, especially if you consider that not everyone will take up their offer
It goes without saying that these calculations are extremely rough and ready and very much not official. But I find this kind of projection helpful, so I hope other people will as well
Here it is in TV form if you prefer your information that way https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1353802737578868738?s=19
Here it is in TV form if you prefer your information that way https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1353802737578868738?s=19
Excellent point. I started trying to take account of this and then I remembered I had a deadline https://twitter.com/TomRugbyFan/status/1353842615515570176?s=19
Useful thread of EU comparisons https://twitter.com/jfkirkegaard/status/1353837984232198145?s=19
