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The Rise of Rookie Pick OvervaluationA Thread on why Dynasty Fantasy Football owners are disappointed year after year!
Let's dive in!
For starters, I just really wanted to use this GIF, as it encapsulates exactly what I want to say to those dynasty players who are shooting the values of rookie picks through the moon!!!
In the wise words of Michael Jordan:
In the wise words of Michael Jordan:
It all started nearly 6 years ago, when Todd Gurley was drafted 10th overall by the then St. Louis Rams to be their running back of the future.
That was the first year of a 4 year run in which one or more running back's went within the top 10 picks of their draft classes.
That was the first year of a 4 year run in which one or more running back's went within the top 10 picks of their draft classes.
2015: Todd Gurley (10th)
2016: Ezekiel Elliott (4th)
2017: Leonard Fournette (4th), Christian McCaffrey (8th)
2018: Saquon Barkley (2nd)
With the 2nd pick in 2018, the Giants drafted Saquon as the highest drafted running back since Reggie Bush (Saints) was taken at two in 2006.
2016: Ezekiel Elliott (4th)
2017: Leonard Fournette (4th), Christian McCaffrey (8th)
2018: Saquon Barkley (2nd)
With the 2nd pick in 2018, the Giants drafted Saquon as the highest drafted running back since Reggie Bush (Saints) was taken at two in 2006.
Looking at each of these players, every one of them had a top 10 season, with Gurley, CMC, and Barkley each having an RB1 finish in their careers (Zeke's highest was 2nd and Fournette's was 7th).
And with this dominance soon followed the clamoring for rookie picks in Dynasty!
And with this dominance soon followed the clamoring for rookie picks in Dynasty!
In the two drafts since Saquon's selection in 2018, only two running backs have gone in the 1st round (Josh Jacobs, 24th, 2019; and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, 32nd, 2020).
These players were taken in startup drafts as first or second rounders in their rookie seasons.
Big mistake.
These players were taken in startup drafts as first or second rounders in their rookie seasons.
Big mistake.
Josh Jacobs has been decent, coming off a 2020 season in which he finished as the RB8 in fantasy.
However, he reached that number off of volume.
Josh Jacobs was among the least efficient running backs of the 2020 season, finishing 43rd of 51 backs with 100+ carries in YPC (3.9)
However, he reached that number off of volume.
Josh Jacobs was among the least efficient running backs of the 2020 season, finishing 43rd of 51 backs with 100+ carries in YPC (3.9)
Despite finishing third in the league with 273 attempts, Jacobs fell to 8th in rushing yardage, and 9th in yards per game.
Jacobs was able to salvage his season on the ground by totaling 12 rushing scores, but overall inefficiency led to a disappointing season for the back.
Jacobs was able to salvage his season on the ground by totaling 12 rushing scores, but overall inefficiency led to a disappointing season for the back.
Edwards-Helaire has a slightly different story.
Being drafted somewhat later (Rounds 5-6) in startups for much of the off-season, CEH was suddenly a round 1 pick in every league when it was announced that fellow KC RB and Super Bowl MVP Damien Williams would sit out the season.
Being drafted somewhat later (Rounds 5-6) in startups for much of the off-season, CEH was suddenly a round 1 pick in every league when it was announced that fellow KC RB and Super Bowl MVP Damien Williams would sit out the season.
CEH flopped, to put it nicely.
After a solid opener in which he ran for over 100 yards, Edwards-Helaire fell back to earth, and finished the season as the RB22 in PPR, well below his 1st-round fantasy draft capital.
Despite showing some promise, CEH couldn't hold onto his role.
After a solid opener in which he ran for over 100 yards, Edwards-Helaire fell back to earth, and finished the season as the RB22 in PPR, well below his 1st-round fantasy draft capital.
Despite showing some promise, CEH couldn't hold onto his role.
By week 7, the rookie was thrust into a time-share, averaging just 10.6 carries per game from then on.
Despite going to what was presumed to be the best possible landing spot for a running back in Kansas City, Dynasty owners were left stranded and even benching their Rookie 1.01
Despite going to what was presumed to be the best possible landing spot for a running back in Kansas City, Dynasty owners were left stranded and even benching their Rookie 1.01
Now I will digress a bit here, and say that some other names in both classes each have done well (Miles Sanders and David Montgomery in 2019, Jonathan Taylor, James Robinson, DeAndre Swift, and Cam Akers in 2020).
However, the notion still stands that the rookie 1,01 isn't sure.
However, the notion still stands that the rookie 1,01 isn't sure.
Now moving into 2021, we are faced with the worst running back class in nearly a decade.
Highlighted by a nearly 23 year old Najee Harris and Travis Etienne, the class has no star power and no depth.
So why are people still stockpiling rookie picks?
Highlighted by a nearly 23 year old Najee Harris and Travis Etienne, the class has no star power and no depth.
So why are people still stockpiling rookie picks?
Popular consensus over the years is that running backs have the most value in average dynasty leagues.
Therefore, they are likely to go early over receivers and other positions.
In recent years, they probably shouldn't have.
Therefore, they are likely to go early over receivers and other positions.
In recent years, they probably shouldn't have.
In 2019, we welcomed top 12 dynasty receivers AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, and Terry McLaurin into the NFL.
In 2020, we were spoiled with dominance in the form of Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Chase Claypool, and Brandon Aiyuk, with many other very good receivers.
In 2020, we were spoiled with dominance in the form of Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, Chase Claypool, and Brandon Aiyuk, with many other very good receivers.
Now, in 2021, I would argue we are seeing the best WR class of the three, with names like Ja'Marr Chase, Rondale Moore, Devonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle, Terrance Marshall Jr, and Rashod Bateman leading the charge of an extremely deep WR class.
So what does this mean?
Running backs will still go 1.01 in Dynasty drafts. At this point, its just habit.
If you do have the 1.01, trade out.
If you need a running back, use it to get a top 8 guy at the position.
If not, trade back and take a great receiver.
Running backs will still go 1.01 in Dynasty drafts. At this point, its just habit.
If you do have the 1.01, trade out.
If you need a running back, use it to get a top 8 guy at the position.
If not, trade back and take a great receiver.
Stop overvaluing running backs, and stop overvaluing your picks in general.
I know draft season can be exciting, and finding names is a lot of fun.
But don't fall for the trap that is taking a running back 1.01 when the value of the pick is higher than the value of the rookie!
I know draft season can be exciting, and finding names is a lot of fun.
But don't fall for the trap that is taking a running back 1.01 when the value of the pick is higher than the value of the rookie!
One more time if you didn't catch that:
The value of rookie picks are more than the values of the players you'll take there.
Use the picks as trade bait.
Don't settle for mediocrity, make moves and get better.
Use draft excitement to your advantage, and dominate your league!!
The value of rookie picks are more than the values of the players you'll take there.
Use the picks as trade bait.
Don't settle for mediocrity, make moves and get better.
Use draft excitement to your advantage, and dominate your league!!
