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As the vaccine rollout ramps up, it's natural to wonder when case numbers will come down and we can start to think about reopening
Latest article with @DeniseDSLu @jamesglanz @simonelandon for @nytimes digs into this w models from researchers at Columbia https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/24/us/covid-vaccine-rollout.html
Latest article with @DeniseDSLu @jamesglanz @simonelandon for @nytimes digs into this w models from researchers at Columbia https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/24/us/covid-vaccine-rollout.html
The lessons from the modeling is both hopeful and hard to hear.
First some bad news - *even with the vaccine* we still expect to see millions of infections over the coming months *even if social distancing measures are kept in place*
First some bad news - *even with the vaccine* we still expect to see millions of infections over the coming months *even if social distancing measures are kept in place*
The researchers that we talked to stressed that for the vaccine to be as effective as possible, social distancing measures should be kept in place until July. Strengthening them would be even better.
If lifted too early we will see more spikes in cases
If lifted too early we will see more spikes in cases
But the modelling can also help us see the light at the end of the tunnel. Staying safe and taking precautions through the end of summer means we'll have made it through the pandemic.
The massive loss will always be with us, but we can now see the end
The massive loss will always be with us, but we can now see the end
The modelling also shows just how crucial the coming weeks and months will be. The longer we keep restrictions in place, the better off we will be
A few notes on the model. Remember that nobody, even experts with PhDs, can perfectly predict the future. These projections rest on assumptions about the speed and order of the vaccine distribution, and the public's willingness to be vaccinated...
But uncertainty doesn't mean the message should be dismissed. The high order signal that we need to keep measures in place for the vaccine to effectively reduce infections remains regardless
You can see the end of the article for the full methodology https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/24/us/covid-vaccine-rollout.html
You can see the end of the article for the full methodology https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/24/us/covid-vaccine-rollout.html
Also note that the number of infections in this piece may be higher than you are used to seeing if you follow along with e.g. daily reported cases
All the numbers in the article represent the estimated true number of infections in the US, not just the cases that are reported
All the numbers in the article represent the estimated true number of infections in the US, not just the cases that are reported
(it turns out the disease doesn't care if you reported your case to your doctor or not)
As always please read the article to get the full details and nuance.
Please stay safe and get the vaccine once it is available https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/24/us/covid-vaccine-rollout.html
Please stay safe and get the vaccine once it is available https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/24/us/covid-vaccine-rollout.html
