1/ You may hear a lot today about “cases” (positive tests) in Israel dropping over the weekend, and how this trend proves vaccines work.

But here’s what you WON’T hear.

A: Israel has had ~NO DECLINE in the rate of positive tests. It simply cut the number of tests it runs...

2/ More than 85% of Israelis over 70 have received one vaccine dose. About 55% have received BOTH doses (which means they received the first dose at least three and more likely four to six weeks ago). This means many should now be protected, based on clinical trial data. BUT...

3/ The number of new deaths and cases of “severe” #Covid - both highly correlated with age - are at all-time highs.

So, six weeks into the widest #Covid vaccination campaign anywhere, Israel still provides NO evidence that the vaccines protect people who are actually at risk...

4/ And remember the clinical trials ALSO provided no evidence of reduced deaths or hospitalizations.

This may change. Let’s hope it changes. But don’t let anyone fool you about what the data says right now.

https://datadashboard.health.gov.il/COVID-19/ 

5/ One last point. Israel is both under strict lockdown (although the ultra-Orthodox don't much care) AND has had this wave going on for long enough that cases should have peaked and be falling - so the fact they are (if they are) says little about vaccines at this point...

6/ If in a month positive tests are zero and hospitalizations and deaths are way down, I'll be glad to say vaccines work. We should all hope they work.

BUT HOPE IS NOT EVIDENCE.