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Sweden's Covid catastrophe in context - Did we squander a Nordic advantage?
Anders Tegnell has recently become fond of claiming that Sweden isn't unusual in our high death toll - that it's our Nordic neighbours that are outliers.
Anders Tegnell has recently become fond of claiming that Sweden isn't unusual in our high death toll - that it's our Nordic neighbours that are outliers.
In this he is partly correct. Sweden is in fact significantly higher than the European average in deaths - but our Nordic neighbours are significantly lower - indeed *much* lower.
Various reasons have been put forth to excuse Sweden's performance compared to it's neighbours - population
density, immigration, holiday timing etc etc. They all fall apart under scrutiny, the simple answer is Sweden's strategy allows for significant spread of infection.
density, immigration, holiday timing etc etc. They all fall apart under scrutiny, the simple answer is Sweden's strategy allows for significant spread of infection.
What isn't discussed so much is how the other Nordics have done so well, and I think there's one factor that has contributed significantly - the Nordics have a very high percentage of one person households.
Around the world, various interventions are in place to decrease the spread of the virus, most commonly physical distancing. This however doesn't apply in the household and once the virus makes it's way in through a single carrier, spread is fast https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6944e1.htm
Within the Nordics, if a sick person takes the infection in to their home, more than 40% of the time *there is nobody else in the household for them to infect*. Contrast this to Spain, where 75% of households have multiple people living in them.
Germany has a similar advantage and has also performed better than the European average.
So why hasn't this advantage helped Sweden?
I believe it has - if we'd been culturally more like Spain or Poland, our death toll would likely be worse, much worse.
So why hasn't this advantage helped Sweden?
I believe it has - if we'd been culturally more like Spain or Poland, our death toll would likely be worse, much worse.
