Read on Twitter
2014: GOP sneers at Obama Admin, claiming they’ll never reach goal of 7 million enrollees by March (they hit 7.1 million by 3/31 & 8.0 million by 4/15).
2021: GOP sneers at Biden Admin for seemingly being set to EXCEED goal of 100 million shots in 100 days.
2021: GOP sneers at Biden Admin for seemingly being set to EXCEED goal of 100 million shots in 100 days.
In late 2013-early 2014, you couldn’t open a newspaper or turn on the TV without some pundit or official shouting about how there was no way in hell the Obama Admin would reach 7 million people enrolling in ACA exchange plans by the end of March. It became this mystical number.
This was literally the entire reason for the existence of http://ACASignups.net in the first place...to track how many actually WERE doing so. That was the only reason I created the site initially.
Even when it became apparent that they might make the 7M target, the GOP insisted that it was “fake news” because “But how many of them have PAID???”
They even insisted on publishing a bullshit survey to “prove” that only 2/3 of enrollees were paying their first premium.
They even insisted on publishing a bullshit survey to “prove” that only 2/3 of enrollees were paying their first premium.
The survey was so full of crap it took me two blog entries to cover it all: https://acasignups.net/14/04/30/shocker-gop-house-energy-committee-report-big-pile-crap
Here's part 2. They sent the survey out on March 13th even though a good 40% of the 8.0M enrollees didn't sign up until *after March 15th*, for coverage starting in *April or May*, meaning the first payment wasn't due until well after that survey period. https://acasignups.net/14/05/01/gop-house-committee-report-so-full-crap-i-couldnt-fit-it-all-one-post-updated
In the end, it turned out that around 85% of those who *selected plans* during the 1st Open Enrollment Period did end up paying their 1st monthly premium, or over 6.8 million. Since then this has increased to around 90% on average: https://acasignups.net/19/08/16/five-years-later-definitive-answer-question-how-many-have-paid
In short, during the first OEP:
--7.1 million selected plans by 3/31
--8.0 million selected plans by the "in line by midnight" overtime deadline of 4/15
--6.8 million paid their 1st premium
Did the Obama Admin achieve "7 million enrollments by the end of March"? (shrug)
--7.1 million selected plans by 3/31
--8.0 million selected plans by the "in line by midnight" overtime deadline of 4/15
--6.8 million paid their 1st premium
Did the Obama Admin achieve "7 million enrollments by the end of March"? (shrug)
In the end, it doesn't really matter that much; the following year they enrolled 11.7 million, then 12.7 million in 2016. After that enrollment dropped off substantially, by an amazing coincidence as the Trump Admin took over, though the 2017 OEP was split between the two.
The truth is that the world wouldn't have opened up and swallowed the country if only 6,999,999 people selected a plan instead of 7,000,000, but once HHS Sec. Sebelius uttered the 7M goal in an interview, it became locked in stone: Anything short of 7M spelled dooooom! for Obama.
Cut to 2021. Here's @ddiamond, one of the best investigative healthcare journalists around (and also among the first to give http://ACASignups.net some attention), on President Biden's "100M doses in 100M days" a few days ago: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/01/22/biden-vaccine-100-million-doses/
To his credit, he starts off stating a key point: When Biden originally targeted 100M in 100 days, it seemed like an extremely high bar:
Meanwhile, what about the Trump Admin promises?
There's also this important clarifier:
"What Biden said in December, as he unveiled his health team, was that he would aim for “at least” 100 million shots, suggesting he was setting a floor, not a ceiling."
"What Biden said in December, as he unveiled his health team, was that he would aim for “at least” 100 million shots, suggesting he was setting a floor, not a ceiling."
So now that the Biden Admin appears to be on target to *exceed* the 100M / 100 days target, instead of "Awesome! Great news!" GOP attacks have now shifted from "They'll never meet that target!" to "They set the target too LOW!"
In short, "Damned if you do, damned if you don't."
In short, "Damned if you do, damned if you don't."
The other thing is that it's not like if they hit 100M doses 10 days early they're gonna pull the plug on the program for the next 10 days. Once they hit 100M, they'll keep pushing for 150M, then 200M, then 250M as quickly as possible.
And of course even if they do hit 100M *doses* in 100 days, you know the GOP attacks will shift to this: "He said 100M would be vaccinated but only 33 million are! It doesn't count if they only got the first shot!" etc, etc, etc.
