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There's already a distinct smell of electoral gunpowder in the French air, so it's time to do a thread on the French election
Tldr: MLP is a poor campaigner, the right is surprisingly strong, left-wing dynamics still in flux, there's room for an upset and a populist wildcard
1/ https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1353468426354909187
Tldr: MLP is a poor campaigner, the right is surprisingly strong, left-wing dynamics still in flux, there's room for an upset and a populist wildcard
1/ https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1353468426354909187
A reminder on France's electoral system. There's a runoff between the 2 strongest candidates, which usually tends to favor centrist candidates, making Macron a strong favorite if he makes it to the runoff. His biggest fear will be to be edged out of his duel with le Pen 2/
Le Pen is currently polling very high, but keep in mind she's a poor campaigner. Back in 2016 she was polling around 30% but only reached 20% in the first round in 2017, narrowly avoiding the humiliation of missing the runoff. 3/
Her campaigning before the runoff was even worse, internal Macron polls had her in the mid-40s (she ended at 33%), then she had this horrific debate. Runoff debates tend to have a muted effect on polls, but her debacle sunk her hard. 4/
Macron's polling is surprisingly low given that his popularity is around 37-40%. To me it says that his popularity is somewhat bolstered by a rally around the flag covid moment. The many logistical failings (masks, tests, vaccines) of the state might come to haunt him in 2022 5/
Macron tried to hollow out the right after hollowing out the left in '17. More on the left later, but the fact the right is at 16% will be a concern for Macron + a divine surprise for the right. An ill-timed scandal or a good campaign could allow them to edge out macron 6/
@xavierbertrand is the popular pres of the Northern Hauts de France region. He isn't the most inspiring politician in France, but he's been playing the "provincial" card very well, albeit a bit heavily, contrasting his local experience with Macron's deconnected "parisianisme" 7/
That said the landscape on the right still needs some decanting, Bertrand isn't alone. Prez of Ile-de-France @vpecresse is also polled here (underperforming Bertrand), Cannes mayor @davidlisnard has been a bit of a rising star, senator @BrunoRetailleau also interested 8/
Landscape on the left is equally chaotic. PS has never recovered from its 2017 humiliation. It risks becoming a party of local officials, a cog in larger coalitions, like the parti radical, a left-wing giant in 50's that has barely survived for decades through coalitions 9/
The greens were the rising force during the municipal + EU elections, but I doubt they have a chance in 2022. The party is known for its squabbling. They also have historically done well in EU + local elections, but failed bigly in presidential elections 10/
The presidential election is about national issues, when the greens focus on local (e.g. air quality in cities) and international issues (e.g. European carbon tax). Their newly elected mayors have also been gaffe-prone, and focused on unpopular leftist parts of their agenda 11/
@JLMelenchon, unlike MLP, is an excellent campaigner. His 2017 campaign was impressive, he narrowly missed the runoff. But the past years have been tough. His fit of rage when his office and home were raided over fraud allegations have hurt him. 12/
More damaging is his ambiguity on "islamist separatism." His party was staffed both by staunch secularist "laicards" and multicultural leftists. Former group have left the party in droves. Given how public opinion is dead against multiculturalism, JLM is in a tough spot. 13/
More generally on the left, I think there's still a lot of decanting to be had. I highly doubt a grand coalition from the PS to JLM is possible given the egoes within each party, and if it happens many left-wing voters would abstain or vote macron. 14/
That said there's a large chunk of left wing voters that will bandwagon with the strongest left-wing candidate if s/he has a shot at making it to the runoff. This is what sank the PS and bolstered JLM in 17. I still think a mass bandwagon would not be enough to edge Macron... 15/
...but it might just weaken Macron enough for the right to face off with le Pen. Strongest candidate to do that imo is @montebourg and maybe @Anne_Hidalgo but they are both currently hammered in this poll. There's going to be a lot of tactical thinking on the center-left. 16/
There's also the possibility for a total wildcard. The electorate always ends up shredding the scenario that seems most likely 16 months ahead of the election. Nobody saw Macron coming 16 months ahead of the election. Same for Hollande (Strauss-Kahn was the favorite), etc... 17/
In a piece I wrote for @TheNatlInterest I argue that there's also room for a populist insurgency, think Navalny/Trump. Macron has united an "elitist block"( @JSainte_Marie) with voters around him, and has benefitted from the absence of a "popular block" 18/ https://nationalinterest.org/feature/how-emmanuel-macron-could-face-2022-populist-upset-172965
The French portray themselves as divided by class. In 2013, a full 5 years before the gilets jaunes, 64 percent thought there was a class struggle in France, when only 44 percent agreed in 1967, the eve of the famous May events in 1968 that rocked de Gaulle’s presidency. 19/
The Gilets Jaunes (GJ) movement has been the closest thing to a unification of this popular bloc. The support for the protests was massive, on a scale unseen in France for decades. It hovered between 60 and 80 percent. The support was near-unanimous in “peripheral” France. 20/
Support for the now defunct GJ remains consistently above 50%. Many of those that identified with the GJ have developed a feeling of belonging to a powerful group. This feeling of collective belonging and strength is a sleeping revolutionary force in French politics. 21/
In my piece I throw a few names that could unify this popular block. It could be a comedian/singer like @PatSebastien or @JM_Bigard. A controversial best-selling political commentator like @ZemmourEric. A former officer like General de Villiers... 22/
I expect the main issues in 2022 to be separatism, as well as economic patriotism. On both issues Macron has become more balanced compared to 17, but these issues will favor populist candidates. 23/
I doubt "Frexit" will be a big issue, given that pensioners are +40% of the electorate and they are against rocking the EU boat. Compared to UK pensioners who voted massively to leave, Fr pensioners are better off than Fr population and have more to lose. It sank MLP in '17 24/
While I think that if the election was held now, Macron would meet and beat MLP in a runoff, an IFOP poll in September illustrated how fragile the Macron-MLP rematch scenario is, as 68 percent of the French do not want this rematch. So there's plenty of room for an upset. end
