Thread by @DataDrivenMD, 1/ If true, this would be the clearest sign that Newsom is [...]

If true, this would be the clearest sign that Newsom is playing politics with the lives of Hispanic and Black persons in California.

The data does NOT support lifting restrictions— this would be Newsom caving to political pressure, again.

Plain and simple. https://twitter.com/mederiosbabb/status/1353566464242933760

https://twitter.com/mederiosbabb/status/1353566464242933760

2/Don’t be fooled by the 26% drop in new cases— we’re still at 5X the upper limit of very high community transmission and half the counties in the state are in the “Red Zone” for new cases and % test positivity.

source: @CodersCovid
url: https://reports.codersagainstcovid.org/california

3/California’s rate of new cases may be falling, but it remains 5X higher than it was in March 2020

source: @CodersCovid
url: https://reports.codersagainstcovid.org/california

4/What began as surge localized in Southern California is moving up the state: through the central valley and into the SF Bay Area

cc @EricG1247

source: @CodersCovid
url: https://reports.codersagainstcovid.org/california

5/Emergency department visits for #COVID19 are statistically *the same* as they were 5 weeks ago across the state.

source: @CodersCovid
url: https://reports.codersagainstcovid.org/california

6/ All that to say: just because the situation isn’t getting *worse* doesn’t make it acceptable to effect policy changes that place more Hispanic, Black, PI, and Native communities at risk.
/

source: @APMResearch
url: https://www.apmresearchlab.org/covid/deaths-by-race#rates

6/ All that to say: just because the situation isn’t getting *worse* doesn’t make it acceptable to effect policy changes that place more Hispanic, Black, PI, and Native communities at risk./source: @APMResearch url: https://www.apmresearchlab.org/covid/deaths-by-race#rates

Pretty much. https://twitter.com/christianarana/status/1353580404121374720

https://twitter.com/christianarana/status/1353580404121374720

We now have confirmation that the email to the California Restaurant Association— Newsom intends to lift stay-at-home orders.

This is happening despite data clearly indicating that we’re not out of the woods, and strongly suggesting that the surge is simply migrating northward. https://twitter.com/svqjournalist/status/1353591912909824000

https://twitter.com/svqjournalist/status/1353591912909824000

Newsom needs to be transparent about the decision-making, and needs to cite the data he’s using to justify his decisions.

Newsom has skated for 6+ months on “trending in the right direction”— while technically true, the data looks much worse than it did last March and April. https://twitter.com/heather_janssen/status/1353589568251908096

https://twitter.com/heather_janssen/status/1353589568251908096

"Promising signs" =

"Trending in the right direction" =

"Same approach we took back in May 2020, which led to disproportionately higher rates of #COVID19 infections and deaths among persons of color" https://twitter.com/zavalaa/status/1353580996398968832

https://twitter.com/zavalaa/status/1353580996398968832

The original policy does, indeed, indicate that reopening would be based on the 4-week projection of ICU capacity.

In other words, Newsom’s plan shuts things down based on real data, and reopens based on an educated guess

source: @CAPublicHealth
url: https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/Regional-Stay-at-Home-Order-.aspx

The original policy does, indeed, indicate that reopening would be based on the 4-week projection of ICU capacity.In other words, Newsom’s plan shuts things down based on real data, and reopens based on an educated guess source: @CAPublicHealth url: https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/Pages/COVID-19/Regional-Stay-at-Home-Order-.aspx

Here’s the million-dollar question: do the projections include capacity created by field hospitals?

If so, then the policy is effectively saying that CA can reopen b/c we’re in a better position to handle #COVID19 hospitalizations and deaths. https://thecoastnews.com/palomar-federal-field-hospital-activated-now-has-10-patients/

Palomar federal field hospital activated, now has 10 patients - The Coast News Group

ESCONDIDO – A 202-bed federal field hospital inside of Palomar Medical Center in Escondido that was activated last week to support overwhelmed hospitals now has 10 patients. The FEMA hospital,...

https://thecoastnews.com/palomar-federal-field-hospital-activated-now-has-10-patients/

Here’s a simple rule of thumb for the state: don’t reopen until you’ve closed all the field hospitals in a region. https://abc7.com/orange-county-coronavirus-covid-19-uci-health/9211185/

Orange County's UCI Health opens mobile field hospital to handle coronavirus surge

UCI Health administrators say they've been preparing to deal with a post-holiday surge of COVID-19 cases for the last six months.

https://abc7.com/orange-county-coronavirus-covid-19-uci-health/9211185/

It doesn’t help when local news, like @NBCLA, push headlines like “Orange County's COVID-19 Hospitalizations Continue Declining“

That story was published today, and closes with a list of 4 field hospitals in operation plus 2 that are set to open soon.

https://www.nbclosangeles.com/news/coronavirus/southern-california-coronavirus/orange-countys-covid-19-hospitalizations-continue-declining/2511533/

Here’s another rule of thumb: don’t reopen restaurants if *international* relief organizations are providing respiratory care to #COVID19 patients in the region. https://abc7.com/lancaster-emergency-field-hospital-coronavirus-covid19/9780542/

Christian relief group opens new emergency field hospital in Lancaster

An emergency field hospital has opened in Lancaster to help relieve the burden at Antelope Valley Hospital, which has been overrun with the surge in countywide coronavirus patients.

https://abc7.com/lancaster-emergency-field-hospital-coronavirus-covid19/9780542/

Here’s another rule of thumb: don’t reopen until the military’s refrigeration trucks and manpower are no longer needed to process the bodies of those who died of #COVID19 the last time the Governor’s office found a way to sell “promising signs”

https://www.radio.com/connectingvets/news/dod-reactivates-field-hospitals-as-covid-19-spikes

Data doesn’t lie— stop insulting our intelligence by punching loopholes into policy, moving the goalposts via waivers/exemptions, and getting cute w/ calculations.

PEOPLE