Read on Twitter
TR and GR will have the 61th round of #exploratorytalks tomorrow. Let’s start by remembering some facts: Exploratory talks are not #negotiation. They aim to explore and understand the problems and prepare the ground for negotiations, and bring suggestions to decision makers
TR and GR had 60 rounds of talks between 2002 and 2016. During this period, differences between parties have only grown, with no real sign of reconciliation. So, talks did not really help until today. Tomorrow’s talks will be the first after a 5 year suspension of talks in 2016
Greece is insisting to talk only about #maritime #delimitation dispute, while Turkey would like meetings to be unconditional and include topics such as #sovereignty of certain islets and rocks, #minorityrights, #demilitarization of Greek Islands
Even though parties have different understanding on tomorrow’s agenda, they are still moving forward as if they don’t hear each other's call. This suggests to me that parties need that hand shaking photo after the meeting to show to Western democracies rather than meeting itself
Invitation came from the Turkish side. Turkey needs these talks more than Greece. Erdogan’s friend #Trump is not in power in the US anymore. TR is the one facing potential sanctions from the EU. February #NATO summit and March #EUsummit are knocking on the door
In TR, hardliners and proponents of #Bluehomeland are not really happy about talks. They say “if this sea is ours, what are we talking about then? Are you planning to give up Libya agreement? Libya deal was your red line, what happened? You cannot bargain on our sovereignty”
In GR, nationalists feel the same way, including Former PM Samaras. They believe Greece already did its PR well, and made Turkey lose its reputation in international fora. "Why are you talking to TR and helping their reputation, and preventing potential upcoming EU #sanctions"
In fact, the TR Gov was not fully confident with the Libya boundary. These talks reflect the suspicion “whether TR really has a boundary with Libya”, and willingness to use the Libya deal as a bargaining chip. Libya deal was wrong, this is an opportunity for TR to correct mistake
In TR, there are two dominating groups on TR’s maritime policies. Turkish Armed Forces, influenced by retired admirals’ #Bluehomeland doctrine strongly defends the Libya deal, and advocates potential expansion of Turkish maritime areas with Israel and Lebanon in the Eastern side
Turkish MFA has a relatively moderate approach. Traditionally MFA believed in 28 meridian to be the boundary between TR and GR. Ultra-nationalist are aware of this, and concerned about MFA’s participation in talks. Their media has been running a smear campaign against these talks
Ambassador Erciyes has been the main target in this campaign. Erciyes is MFA’s institutional memory for maritime affairs, and member of the Turkish delegation of exploratory talks. A year ago, he expressed that he does not believe in the existence of a TR-Israel maritime boundary
In 2019, ultra-nationalists were able to convince Erdogan in novel #Bluehomeland doctrine, and made him execute the Libya deal. We will see whether TR is stepping back from this deal, repositioning itself towards the traditional MFA stance, and aligning with international law
Once again, even though TR has signed the Libya agreement, survey NAVTEX messages issued even after the Libya deal did not extend beyond the 28th meridian, and have remained on the Eastern side of this traditional boundary. Tomorrow, TR will underline this as a sign of good faith
Greece will insist on delimitation of maritime boundaries only under the principles of UNCLOS. This wont help. TR is not a party to UNCLOS, and should not be blamed for this. Not being a party to UNCLOS is not a disregard to int law. I will be tweeting about this topic separately
GR will categorically reject talking about right to “extend TS to 12 nm, ownership on certain formations and demilitarization of islands”. For GR, these are non-negotiable national defense and sovereignty matters, keeping in mind Cyprus intervention and declaration of casus belli
Extension of GR territorial sea in the Ionian Sea is not a provocation of expl talks. TR has 12 nm TS in Black Sea too. Tomorrow's talk is a very sensitive topic. It is understandable if parties try to balance domestic audience with these type of patriotic actions and rhetoric
TR also issued NAVTEX in the middle of Aegean Sea for military exercises on the eve of talks. (PS: States have right to carry out military exercises in other state’s EEZ or in disputed waters. This is different from issuing NAVTEX for survey vessel, which is controversial)
Parties are very skeptical about each other’s intentions. We can read mistrust in domestic rhetoric and statements. Tomorrow, first, they will try to read each other’s mind, and be very diplomatic. Obviously, there is no prospect of a significant development tomorrow immediately
Should we expect anything significant in the short term? No! Maritime delimitation talks take long. It took 40 years for Russia and Norway to get to their treaty. Also, parties are not ready for a compromise yet. It might be a political suicide domestically if not managed well
Neither society is ready to give up their “own land" yet. They have been fed with hostility and patriotism for years. But short-term outcome might tell us whether the AKP Government used Libya deal and Bluehomeland for its own agenda, or to really preserve TR national interests
