We of course need to pay attention to whether suicide attempts and suicides are increasing among youth during the pandemic. However - this is an empirical question and thus we need to keep a few things in mind: 🧵👇
First - all data has some degree of expected variability. Suicide data is no exception. The numbers bounce around in the short term and we expect this. Because the number of deaths is relatively small, this natural variability can look like a huge change.
Thus - you need to examine whether a change between two years is greater than you would expect given regular variability in the data.
Second - We need to look at trends over many years. For example, youth suicides have been basically increasing since 1999. You need to empirically test whether one year's increase is actually more than just what we would expect the increase to be given the larger trend.
Third - Youth suicide data is roughly seasonal. Attempts are low in the summer and rise until January, at which point they fall. Then attempts climb until June/July when the fall until September. (This also happens to correspond with school calendars).
So we also need to empirically test if the rise we're seeing since a particular point in the year is itself expected.
Clearly we need to take youth suicides extremely seriously, today and every day. However, we do not yet seem to have the evidence that the pandemic has greatly increased youth suicides or attempts. This could be the case, but we need to wait and see to make strong claims.
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