Read on Twitter
1/ Lots of press today about Clubhouse raising at $1B valuation.
Obviously lots of risk, but as with all VC strategy, the question is: "How big could this be if it works?"
Here's my thoughts on how Clubhouse could become a $100B company:
A thread...
Obviously lots of risk, but as with all VC strategy, the question is: "How big could this be if it works?"
Here's my thoughts on how Clubhouse could become a $100B company:
A thread...
2/ An easy parallel to draw is to radio stations, one of the oldest forms of media.
Today there are over 15k radio stations in the USA. The total number of possible stations is limited due to regulation (FCC) and total available spectrum.
Today there are over 15k radio stations in the USA. The total number of possible stations is limited due to regulation (FCC) and total available spectrum.
3/ With the internet, there is no limit to the number of stations.
Clubhouse could have millions of broadcasters and millions of shows in a few years.
Go long tail, go niche, go deep.
Just like subreddits of every interest, Clubhouse can have rooms for every online community.
Clubhouse could have millions of broadcasters and millions of shows in a few years.
Go long tail, go niche, go deep.
Just like subreddits of every interest, Clubhouse can have rooms for every online community.
4/ The appetite is there.
Americans listen to an average of 106 minutes of radio per day.
Most of this is while commuting. Will resume post-COVID.
And now cell data is cheap enough to stream audio on your morning drive.
Americans listen to an average of 106 minutes of radio per day.
Most of this is while commuting. Will resume post-COVID.
And now cell data is cheap enough to stream audio on your morning drive.
5/ It's still very early for internet audio.
In 2018, US radio generated total revenue of $14B.
Only 6.5% of that was through online radio streaming.
In 2018, US radio generated total revenue of $14B.
Only 6.5% of that was through online radio streaming.
6/ Today as an individual broadcaster on internet radio, it's complicated to figure out how to sell ads and build distribution.
Clubhouse can fix both, building an interests graph and leveraging scale to bundle a monetization platform.
Broadcasters just focus on content.
Clubhouse can fix both, building an interests graph and leveraging scale to bundle a monetization platform.
Broadcasters just focus on content.
7/ But monetization isn't limited to just ads.
Clubhouse can offer subscriber-only content, similar to Substack.
This is somewhat already done today with subscriber-only "conference calls" run by publications like The Information.
Onlyfans for radio.
Pay-Per-View for audio
Clubhouse can offer subscriber-only content, similar to Substack.
This is somewhat already done today with subscriber-only "conference calls" run by publications like The Information.
Onlyfans for radio.
Pay-Per-View for audio
8/ And what about music?
Clubhouse can partner with Spotify/etc for streaming rights (hardest part) and then build a collaborative playlist editor into the Clubhouse app.
Now everyone is a DJ and has a radio show. Super fun and would expand the listener base wider and further.
Clubhouse can partner with Spotify/etc for streaming rights (hardest part) and then build a collaborative playlist editor into the Clubhouse app.
Now everyone is a DJ and has a radio show. Super fun and would expand the listener base wider and further.
9/ Not to mention going international.
Massive potential for democratizing access to streaming audio in developing countries and nascent markets.
Leapfrogging traditional radio spectrum, straight to internet radio. Just like they did with skipping copper landline to cell phones
Massive potential for democratizing access to streaming audio in developing countries and nascent markets.
Leapfrogging traditional radio spectrum, straight to internet radio. Just like they did with skipping copper landline to cell phones
10/ Live audio as a medium has a ton of advantages.
Less bandwidth/storage than video.
Cheap to stream. (Live media can be multiplexed.)
Cheaper production costs than video/TV. Built-in mic.
Live media has lower editing standards than recorded. Podcasts are expensive to edit.
Less bandwidth/storage than video.
Cheap to stream. (Live media can be multiplexed.)
Cheaper production costs than video/TV. Built-in mic.
Live media has lower editing standards than recorded. Podcasts are expensive to edit.
11/ And perhaps the most overlooked opportunity...
We are entering the post-Trump era which means there will be a huge vacuum of media content!
We've all been overloaded the past 4 years. Like it or now, we are all addicted media junkies.
Clubhouse could be our next fix.
We are entering the post-Trump era which means there will be a huge vacuum of media content!
We've all been overloaded the past 4 years. Like it or now, we are all addicted media junkies.
Clubhouse could be our next fix.
12/ And lastly: the media networks are crumbling in favor of solo producers and direct distribution.
The talent holds the community, and therefore the leverage.
Joe Rogan. Conan. Kim Kardashian. PewDiePie. These are the new Walter Cronkite.
The talent holds the community, and therefore the leverage.
Joe Rogan. Conan. Kim Kardashian. PewDiePie. These are the new Walter Cronkite.
13/ Twitter is the closest threat, with a vibrant interest graph ready to bootstrap audio communities.
But historically Twitter is bad at copying competitors, moving fast, or deeply integrating acquisitions. Look to failed opportunities in Twitter music, Vine, and Periscope.
But historically Twitter is bad at copying competitors, moving fast, or deeply integrating acquisitions. Look to failed opportunities in Twitter music, Vine, and Periscope.
14/ Clubhouse could become the Twitter of audio.
And this "what if" opportunity is more than large enough to justify a competitive large valuation.
Huge opportunity and tremendous potential. I'm excited to watch (and listen
) as it unfolds.
Good luck @pdavison @rohanseth !!
And this "what if" opportunity is more than large enough to justify a competitive large valuation.
Huge opportunity and tremendous potential. I'm excited to watch (and listen
) as it unfolds.Good luck @pdavison @rohanseth !!
