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1/I've been thinking back on the Bernie movement this week. And I felt it was time for a retrospective.
So let's talk about that movement, and what it was, and how it changed our country, and how it failed to change our country. https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-bernie-movement-an-assessment
So let's talk about that movement, and what it was, and how it changed our country, and how it failed to change our country. https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-bernie-movement-an-assessment
2/Thanks to Bernie, "socialism" isn't a dirty word in America anymore. https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2020/10/23/soci-o23.html
3/And even the "centrist" Biden is putting forward the boldest, most progressive legislative agenda since...LBJ? https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/01/14/biden-economic-agenda/?arc404=true
4/So although Bernie lost the election, he seems to have moved the Overton Window to the left -- exactly as he and many of his supporters hoped.
5/It's important that we understand how radical Bernie really was -- at least, in his 2020 campaign.
Many of his proposals went far beyond Europe's policies. Even in Europe, Bernie would be solidly leftist. In America, he was truly radical.
Many of his proposals went far beyond Europe's policies. Even in Europe, Bernie would be solidly leftist. In America, he was truly radical.
6/Radical policy programs rarely win at the ballot box. And Bernie had to have known this. But sometimes, radical programs force the center-left to move leftward. And Bernie did accomplish this!
7/Of course, Bernie doesn't deserve sole credit for this. The country was long overdue for a leftward economic shift. And the COVID-19 pandemic, Donald Trump's failures, and Elizabeth Warren all had something to do with it too.
8/Nor do progressive *proposals* mean that we'll get progressive *policies*.
The Dems have shifted left but the Republicans are still intransigent. No matter what Biden proposes, he'll have to get past McConnell (and Manchin).
The Dems have shifted left but the Republicans are still intransigent. No matter what Biden proposes, he'll have to get past McConnell (and Manchin).
9/But Bernie did bring an end to the era when the Democratic party actively resisted progressive economic ideas. If progressivism is halted now, it will be the GOP that does it, not the Dems.
And that is a huge win for Bernie.
And that is a huge win for Bernie.
10/But although Bernie won on the ideological front, he lost on the political front.
His campaign was intensely factionalist -- it was about overthrowing and supplanting the Democratic establishment.
And this he abjectly failed to do. https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/status/1231021453270769664
His campaign was intensely factionalist -- it was about overthrowing and supplanting the Democratic establishment.
And this he abjectly failed to do. https://twitter.com/BernieSanders/status/1231021453270769664
11/"Bernie-ism" was far less about ideological socialism than about populism. The fundamental tenet wasn't anything about the proletariat or the means of production -- it was that the U.S. is an oligarchy, where politicians are bought and sold by corporate interests.
12/Never mind that the evidence for this proposition was always very shaky. https://www.vox.com/2016/5/9/11502464/gilens-page-oligarchy-study
13/The Bernie movement's Theory of Power was decisively smashed on March 3rd, 2020, when great masses of Democratic voters decided they wanted Biden instead.
Bernie went from 43% of the Democratic primary vote in 2016 to 26% in 2020. https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/4/10/21214970/bernie-sanders-2020-lost-class-socialism
Bernie went from 43% of the Democratic primary vote in 2016 to 26% in 2020. https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/4/10/21214970/bernie-sanders-2020-lost-class-socialism
14/Bernie banked on a turnout surge. And there was a surge -- but it all went for Biden. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/03/super-tuesday-gave-joe-biden-historic-surge-he-needed/
15/Bernie banked on uniting the White working class and the Black working class.
And they united in 2020...behind Biden.
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/11/21174602/biden-won-working-class-white-voters-primary
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/black-voters-saved-joe-bidens-campaign/617055/
And they united in 2020...behind Biden.
https://www.vox.com/2020/3/11/21174602/biden-won-working-class-white-voters-primary
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/11/black-voters-saved-joe-bidens-campaign/617055/
16/Bernie supporters banked on him being able to win a plurality in a heavily divided field.
But when the opposition formed a Centrist Voltron, almost none of their votes flowed to Bernie, as his supporters had hoped.
But when the opposition formed a Centrist Voltron, almost none of their votes flowed to Bernie, as his supporters had hoped.
17/And that was that. Unlike in 2016, when Bernie kept the factional battle alive after Hillary had already effectively one, Bernie threw in the towel, lined up behind Biden, and worked to push the Dems to the left on policy.
Good!!
Good!!
18/So where does the Bernie movement go from here?
The DSA, and a few elected leaders, will keep pushing factionalist politics, establishing positions to the left of whatever Biden does and then excoriating the Democratic establishment for being sellout centrists...
The DSA, and a few elected leaders, will keep pushing factionalist politics, establishing positions to the left of whatever Biden does and then excoriating the Democratic establishment for being sellout centrists...
19/Others will be drawn to the elusive dream of third parties.
20/Others will withdraw from politics entirely, retreating to their barbecue grills and raking in the money from their podcasts. https://medium.com/@jnnielsen/the-grill-pill-224604bcee70
21/And how about the fired-up kids who were so excited for Bernie's "political revolution"? Now that they see that it's not happening soon, a few will turn to dreams of Actual Revolution.
Some will become anarchists.
A few will even become...tankies. https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/tankies
Some will become anarchists.
A few will even become...tankies. https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/tankies
22/But some will turn from revolution toward evolution.
They will go from being democratic socialists to being social democrats. They will push for big welfare states, high taxes, strong unions, etc. over the next few decades.
(check out @jdcmedlock for an example)
They will go from being democratic socialists to being social democrats. They will push for big welfare states, high taxes, strong unions, etc. over the next few decades.
(check out @jdcmedlock for an example)
23/Anyway, the Bernie movement is over, but it changed America. Bernie's factional takeover of the Dems failed, but he moved it in a progressive direction. And thanks to him, America has a real Left again.
History will remember him for that.
(end) https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-bernie-movement-an-assessment
History will remember him for that.
(end) https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-bernie-movement-an-assessment
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