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The prospects of Poland's main opposition Civic Platform (PO) party on its twentieth birthday [THREAD]: Do read the great piece from @danieltilles1 below on the party's current lack of leadership, vision, and strategy. 1/ https://notesfrompoland.com/2021/01/24/civic-platform-turns-20-is-polands-zombie-party-now-undermining-opposition-to-pis/
In my view, the party's main problems are a split electorate, a "zeitgeist" that has turned against it, and weak personnel. First, an electorate divided between centrist conservatives and more progressive big-city voters makes it very hard to produce a vision to appeal to all. 2/
The big cities are still more likely to vote for PO, but PiS dominates small towns and villages, where most Polish voters live. This is where PO has to regain voters to succeed. In their winning days of 2007-2015, they did much better there than now. https://twitter.com/StanleySBill/status/1133675369347911680?s=20 3/
This past success outside cities was partly due to a very different "zeitgeist", when the drive to imitate “the West” seemed inevitable enough to convince some small-town conservatives that the (moderate) cultural and economic liberalism of PO was best option for the times. 4/
Now PO's type of economic liberalism is in retreat as the role of the state comes back into vogue around the world. And a more self-assertive nativism has come to challenge the imitative Polish model of transformation (partly due to various troubles of the liberal “West”). 5/
So the traditional foundations of PO's political narrative have been undermined. And it can't make a decisive turn to a more progressive politics, as this would alienate the small-town centrist voters the party needs. All this makes it very hard to establish a big new vision. 6/
Finally, personnel are a problem. From outside, it's hard to see any major political talent or fresh energy. The party must reinvent itself to reverse its fortunes, but there doesn't appear to be the will (or people) to do it. Some members may be happy enough in opposition. 7/
After two terms, PiS should be ripe for defeat in 2023. But if PO continues to drift, a record third term may happen. The only new energy in the political centre is from Szymon Hołownia, but he will have to cooperate somehow with PO, which has the key structures he lacks. 8/
Conclusion: after five years, Poland’s opposition PO looks no closer to ending its malaise, though PiS also faces big challenges. Even PO's own voters are cynical about the party's brand. Unless it changes direction soon, its best chance of victory may be PiS's self-destruction.
