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As SNP set out 11 point plan to indyref, a few comments on route to independence in EU - drawing on in-depth research interviews across many EU member states.
There is a clear path to re-joining EU if independence done in legal, constitutional way with agreement Edinburgh-London
There is a clear path to re-joining EU if independence done in legal, constitutional way with agreement Edinburgh-London
There's more understanding of Scottish independence in EU now than in 2014 but also a wide range of views - EU govts do not look at the fragmentation of the UK as positive (UK has caused enough trouble via Brexit) but if Scotland was independent then EU wd be pragmatic
Whether section 30 order or other route to independence, EU member states & Brussels, will be looking for political agreement between Edinburgh & London, an agreed divorce, rUK recognition of iScotland. This is especially important for Spain but for others too.
Any plan B needs in the end to bring UK govt to table to agree separation w iScotland. Without initial London agreement to a referendum or other route to indy, then political uncertainty and a rUK-Scotland stand-off likely to develop. EU govts would stand well back from this
In face of valid independence process, iScotland cd apply to EU through normal accession process. If in near(ish) future, & iScotland not diverged too far from meeting EU single mkt criteria & other regs, then process cd be as swift as 4-5 years.
iScotland as a 5 million, northern European state, democracy, market economy (& having been in EU for 47 yrs) wd not look technically or politically challenging to EU - more straightforward than W Balkans accession processes tho yes issues include currency, deficit.
There will be a transition out of UK, into EU. This wd be managed through a Scotland-EU association agreement.
European Economic Area (EEA) is not a transition route but an alternative to EU;EEA membership requires agreement of EU 27 & EEA3 & wd not be available on day 1 of indy
European Economic Area (EEA) is not a transition route but an alternative to EU;EEA membership requires agreement of EU 27 & EEA3 & wd not be available on day 1 of indy
Most recent EU accessions have seen candidates hold referendums on joining EU after they have completed talks w EU. For iScotland, this wd mean those who oppose EU or even EEA membership cd express their views in such a vote.
For more on this, see my recent paper on EU views of UK & Scotland https://www.scer.scot/database/ident-12883
and our @SCER_eu edited report, with the views of 15 experts, on indy in the EU https://www.scer.scot/database/ident-12533
and our @SCER_eu edited report, with the views of 15 experts, on indy in the EU https://www.scer.scot/database/ident-12533
