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Let’s talk about why we can’t just rely on vaccines to end this #pandemic, now that the new variants are around
A thread
based on this paper from the CDC
1/
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/pdfs/mm7003e2-H.pdf
A thread
based on this paper from the CDC1/
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/pdfs/mm7003e2-H.pdf
2/ Details:
The paper looks only at #B117 (aka the “British variant”). It doesn’t take into account other circulating variants.
It assumes low penetration of the variant in the population (0.5% at the start)
The paper looks only at #B117 (aka the “British variant”). It doesn’t take into account other circulating variants. It assumes low penetration of the variant in the population (0.5% at the start)
It assumes vaccination provides 95% protection against both the original *and* variant strains of covid (something we don’t know for a fact yet)3/
4/ With these assumptions, here’s the key page from the article.
The color choices are unfortunate, IMO, because the curve you want to focus on is the light grey one, which is the overall trajectory of the pandemic.
(Dark blue is the original variant, and light blue is B117)
The color choices are unfortunate, IMO, because the curve you want to focus on is the light grey one, which is the overall trajectory of the pandemic.
(Dark blue is the original variant, and light blue is B117)
5/ Zooming in on the top of the page.
On the left you see what happens in the US if we don’t vaccinate at all *and* the R value is 1.1. Basically, the pandemic continues unabated as B117 takes over.
On the right, the same thing but R=0.9
On the left you see what happens in the US if we don’t vaccinate at all *and* the R value is 1.1. Basically, the pandemic continues unabated as B117 takes over.
On the right, the same thing but R=0.9
6/ Side note:
To contextualize, today R = 1.1 in San Antonio and 0.9 in Maui, according to @CovidActNow
To contextualize, today R = 1.1 in San Antonio and 0.9 in Maui, according to @CovidActNow
7/ Ok now here’s what happens when we *do* vaccinate (seven tweets into this thread. Hello to anyone still here!)
If R=1.1, we go from 60 cases per 100 000 to 40-ish. A drop for sure, but nowhere near ending this pandemic.
If R=0.9, then we actually get control
If R=1.1, we go from 60 cases per 100 000 to 40-ish. A drop for sure, but nowhere near ending this pandemic.
If R=0.9, then we actually get control
8/ In Europe, the B117 variant is far more prevalent than in the US, making efforts to drop the R—through the measures you’re tired of hearing about—*so* much more important.
And even more crucial:
And even more crucial:
9/ There’ll be *huge* amounts of pressure to start relaxing restrictions once the elderly and vulnerable are vaccinated.
That will be WAY too soon.
That will be WAY too soon.
10/10
The pandemic will explode in younger people. And because younger people use the ICUs more often, we’ll still overwhelm capacities, meaning the average age of death will go down.
So wear a mask. Even outside. Even after you’ve been vaccinated.
This ain’t over yet
The pandemic will explode in younger people. And because younger people use the ICUs more often, we’ll still overwhelm capacities, meaning the average age of death will go down.
So wear a mask. Even outside. Even after you’ve been vaccinated.
This ain’t over yet
