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Rookie WR Model 2021 Edition
Second year doing this model
⁃Primary change since last year - added yards per team pass attempt
⁃R^2 to S1-3 PPR PPG 0.34 compared to draft capital (R1-7) alone R^2 0.30
1/9
Second year doing this model
⁃Primary change since last year - added yards per team pass attempt
⁃R^2 to S1-3 PPR PPG 0.34 compared to draft capital (R1-7) alone R^2 0.30
1/9
However focus of rookie drafts should be on Day 1&2 rookies right?
- Avoid highly drafted potential busts and to hit on more successful profiles
R1-3
- pre draft model R^2 0.24
- post draft 0.27
- draft capital 0.13
= don’t just rely on draft cap for day1-2 rookie picks
2/9
- Avoid highly drafted potential busts and to hit on more successful profiles
R1-3
- pre draft model R^2 0.24
- post draft 0.27
- draft capital 0.13
= don’t just rely on draft cap for day1-2 rookie picks
2/9
Have only shown players drafted in @BenjaminSolak’s most recent 3 round mock draft as a substitute for true draft capital
https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/2021-nfl-mock-draft-solak-1.0
3/9
https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/2021-nfl-mock-draft-solak-1.0
3/9
⁃Since 2010, 35 players have hit >8.70 on the post draft model
⁃20/35 (57%) have hit a WR1 szn
⁃24/35 (69%) a WR2 szn
⁃26/35 (74%) a WR3 szn
4/9
⁃20/35 (57%) have hit a WR1 szn
⁃24/35 (69%) a WR2 szn
⁃26/35 (74%) a WR3 szn
4/9
7 players hit this mark in 2021 using the mock draft capital:
⁃Rashod Bateman
⁃Elijah Moore
⁃Terrace Marshall Jr
⁃Rondale Moore
⁃Ja’Marr Chase
⁃Amon-Ra St Brown
⁃Tylan Wallace
5/9
⁃Rashod Bateman
⁃Elijah Moore
⁃Terrace Marshall Jr
⁃Rondale Moore
⁃Ja’Marr Chase
⁃Amon-Ra St Brown
⁃Tylan Wallace
5/9
⁃Ja’Marr Chase opted out so couldn’t improve on his sophomore dominator which would’ve boosted him
⁃Rondale Moore only played 7 games over past two seasons so that hurt his sample size
⁃Impressive for Tylan Wallace to make it in despite round 3 + a senior
6/9
⁃Rondale Moore only played 7 games over past two seasons so that hurt his sample size
⁃Impressive for Tylan Wallace to make it in despite round 3 + a senior
6/9
The next lot:
⁃Dyami Brown and Seth Williams are close despite round 3 capital
⁃Devonta Smith falls short despite round 1 capital
⁃I’ll be fading Waddle at cost
⁃Please do not touch Kadarius Toney with a high pick
7/9
⁃Dyami Brown and Seth Williams are close despite round 3 capital
⁃Devonta Smith falls short despite round 1 capital
⁃I’ll be fading Waddle at cost
⁃Please do not touch Kadarius Toney with a high pick
7/9
Tutu Atwell would hit >8.70 if round 4 or better draft capital. He’s only small, but he’s produced in college at a young age so will be someone I likely target in the later rounds
8/9
8/9
Post NFL draft I’ll update with actual NFL draft capital
I’m working on another model tweak but more input is needed and then need to test it, and time is a bit short currently. I’m sure I’ll have it out pre NFL draft unless it’s trash and I don’t like the adjustments
9/9
I’m working on another model tweak but more input is needed and then need to test it, and time is a bit short currently. I’m sure I’ll have it out pre NFL draft unless it’s trash and I don’t like the adjustments
9/9
Just realised I should’ve used ANOVA instead of R when comparing draft capital to PPG especially when using rounds 1-3 as opposed to 1-7. Will get around to adding draft position one day as opposed to round and re-compare 
